Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for Reform UK securing a mayorship in the May 7, 2026, English local elections, despite MRP polls projecting the party to lead national vote shares and claim 1,300–2,200 net council seat gains across 136 authorities, including major advances in London boroughs and the West Midlands. This reflects the limited scope of six mayoral contests—such as Croydon and Tower Hamlets—where incumbents like Croydon's Conservative Jason Perry hold advantages under first-past-the-post or supplementary vote systems, compounded by Reform's March-reported candidate recruitment struggles and a March suspension of one prospective contender. Absent late polling breakthroughs or scandals shifting dynamics, structural barriers favor continuity in these executive roles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
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May 7, 2026
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May 7, 2026
United Kingdom local elections are currently scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Reform UK candidate wins a mayorship as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with Reform UK. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only the following mayoral elections scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026, will qualify for this market: Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and/or Watford.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for Reform UK securing a mayorship in the May 7, 2026, English local elections, despite MRP polls projecting the party to lead national vote shares and claim 1,300–2,200 net council seat gains across 136 authorities, including major advances in London boroughs and the West Midlands. This reflects the limited scope of six mayoral contests—such as Croydon and Tower Hamlets—where incumbents like Croydon's Conservative Jason Perry hold advantages under first-past-the-post or supplementary vote systems, compounded by Reform's March-reported candidate recruitment struggles and a March suspension of one prospective contender. Absent late polling breakthroughs or scandals shifting dynamics, structural barriers favor continuity in these executive roles.
United Kingdom local elections are currently scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Reform UK candidate wins a mayorship as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with Reform UK. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only the following mayoral elections scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026, will qualify for this market: Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and/or Watford.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Reform UK candidate wins a mayorship as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with Reform UK. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only the following mayoral elections scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026, will qualify for this market: Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and/or Watford.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$2,013End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...United Kingdom local elections are currently scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Reform UK candidate wins a mayorship as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with Reform UK. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only the following mayoral elections scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026, will qualify for this market: Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and/or Watford.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for Reform UK securing a mayorship in the May 7, 2026, English local elections, despite MRP polls projecting the party to lead national vote shares and claim 1,300–2,200 net council seat gains across 136 authorities, including major advances in London boroughs and the West Midlands. This reflects the limited scope of six mayoral contests—such as Croydon and Tower Hamlets—where incumbents like Croydon's Conservative Jason Perry hold advantages under first-past-the-post or supplementary vote systems, compounded by Reform's March-reported candidate recruitment struggles and a March suspension of one prospective contender. Absent late polling breakthroughs or scandals shifting dynamics, structural barriers favor continuity in these executive roles.
United Kingdom local elections are currently scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Reform UK candidate wins a mayorship as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with Reform UK. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only the following mayoral elections scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026, will qualify for this market: Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and/or Watford.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Reform UK candidate wins a mayorship as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A candidate will be considered an official candidate of Reform UK if they are officially nominated by Reform UK and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with Reform UK. Independent candidates will not count for any party.
Only the following mayoral elections scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026, will qualify for this market: Croydon, Hackney, Lewisham, Newham, Tower Hamlets, and/or Watford.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
Volume
$2,013End Date
May 7, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 90.5% for Reform UK securing a mayorship in the May 7, 2026, English local elections, despite MRP polls projecting the party to lead national vote shares and claim 1,300–2,200 net council seat gains across 136 authorities, including major advances in London boroughs and the West Midlands. This reflects the limited scope of six mayoral contests—such as Croydon and Tower Hamlets—where incumbents like Croydon's Conservative Jason Perry hold advantages under first-past-the-post or supplementary vote systems, compounded by Reform's March-reported candidate recruitment struggles and a March suspension of one prospective contender. Absent late polling breakthroughs or scandals shifting dynamics, structural barriers favor continuity in these executive roles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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