Incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul maintains commanding double-digit leads in general election polls against likely Republican nominee Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, with the latest Siena College survey from late March showing her ahead 47%-34% among registered voters. This trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for a Democrat reflects New York's deep-blue electoral math, massive Democratic registration edge, and Hochul's strengthened position after Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado withdrew his primary challenge in February and she secured endorsements from NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. No major shifts have occurred in the past 30 days amid stable favorability, though June 23 primaries could introduce volatility; realistic challengers include a Hochul scandal, GOP national tailwinds boosting turnout in suburbs, or depressed Democratic participation in urban strongholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNew York Governor Election Winner
New York Governor Election Winner
$52,988 Vol.
$52,988 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
92%
Republican
8%
$52,988 Vol.
$52,988 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat
$26,702 Vol.
92%
Republican
$26,285 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul maintains commanding double-digit leads in general election polls against likely Republican nominee Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, with the latest Siena College survey from late March showing her ahead 47%-34% among registered voters. This trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for a Democrat reflects New York's deep-blue electoral math, massive Democratic registration edge, and Hochul's strengthened position after Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado withdrew his primary challenge in February and she secured endorsements from NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. No major shifts have occurred in the past 30 days amid stable favorability, though June 23 primaries could introduce volatility; realistic challengers include a Hochul scandal, GOP national tailwinds boosting turnout in suburbs, or depressed Democratic participation in urban strongholds.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ET
Volume
$52,988End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul maintains commanding double-digit leads in general election polls against likely Republican nominee Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, with the latest Siena College survey from late March showing her ahead 47%-34% among registered voters. This trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for a Democrat reflects New York's deep-blue electoral math, massive Democratic registration edge, and Hochul's strengthened position after Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado withdrew his primary challenge in February and she secured endorsements from NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. No major shifts have occurred in the past 30 days amid stable favorability, though June 23 primaries could introduce volatility; realistic challengers include a Hochul scandal, GOP national tailwinds boosting turnout in suburbs, or depressed Democratic participation in urban strongholds.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$52,988End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul maintains commanding double-digit leads in general election polls against likely Republican nominee Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, with the latest Siena College survey from late March showing her ahead 47%-34% among registered voters. This trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for a Democrat reflects New York's deep-blue electoral math, massive Democratic registration edge, and Hochul's strengthened position after Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado withdrew his primary challenge in February and she secured endorsements from NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. No major shifts have occurred in the past 30 days amid stable favorability, though June 23 primaries could introduce volatility; realistic challengers include a Hochul scandal, GOP national tailwinds boosting turnout in suburbs, or depressed Democratic participation in urban strongholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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