Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Republican House seats around 190 post-2026 midterms, with below 190 leading at 32.5% amid Democratic leads in early generic ballot polls averaging 3-5 points nationally. This reflects historical midterm penalties for the president's party—averaging 26-seat losses since 1950—and President Trump's approval ratings dipping into the low 40s amid tensions like the Iran conflict, exposing GOP's slim current majority of roughly 217 seats vulnerable in 17+ toss-up and lean battleground districts per Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings updated April 21. The tight clustering across low-190s bins underscores uncertainty from candidate recruitment, retirements, and redistricting rulings; separation could arise from economic shifts, approval rebounds, primary outcomes, or turnout in swing states before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
$212,464 Vol.
$212,464 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Below 190
33%
190-194
22%
195-199
18%
200-204
10%
205-209
6%
210-214
9%
215-219
6%
220-224
6%
225-229
5%
230+
1%
$212,464 Vol.
$212,464 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Below 190
$10,958 Vol.
33%
190-194
$5,998 Vol.
22%
195-199
$27,051 Vol.
18%
200-204
$21,429 Vol.
10%
205-209
$33,960 Vol.
6%
210-214
$11,814 Vol.
9%
215-219
$5,829 Vol.
6%
220-224
$51,086 Vol.
6%
225-229
$19,576 Vol.
5%
230+
$24,763 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Republican House seats around 190 post-2026 midterms, with below 190 leading at 32.5% amid Democratic leads in early generic ballot polls averaging 3-5 points nationally. This reflects historical midterm penalties for the president's party—averaging 26-seat losses since 1950—and President Trump's approval ratings dipping into the low 40s amid tensions like the Iran conflict, exposing GOP's slim current majority of roughly 217 seats vulnerable in 17+ toss-up and lean battleground districts per Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings updated April 21. The tight clustering across low-190s bins underscores uncertainty from candidate recruitment, retirements, and redistricting rulings; separation could arise from economic shifts, approval rebounds, primary outcomes, or turnout in swing states before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$212,464End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Republican House seats around 190 post-2026 midterms, with below 190 leading at 32.5% amid Democratic leads in early generic ballot polls averaging 3-5 points nationally. This reflects historical midterm penalties for the president's party—averaging 26-seat losses since 1950—and President Trump's approval ratings dipping into the low 40s amid tensions like the Iran conflict, exposing GOP's slim current majority of roughly 217 seats vulnerable in 17+ toss-up and lean battleground districts per Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings updated April 21. The tight clustering across low-190s bins underscores uncertainty from candidate recruitment, retirements, and redistricting rulings; separation could arise from economic shifts, approval rebounds, primary outcomes, or turnout in swing states before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$212,464End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Republican House seats around 190 post-2026 midterms, with below 190 leading at 32.5% amid Democratic leads in early generic ballot polls averaging 3-5 points nationally. This reflects historical midterm penalties for the president's party—averaging 26-seat losses since 1950—and President Trump's approval ratings dipping into the low 40s amid tensions like the Iran conflict, exposing GOP's slim current majority of roughly 217 seats vulnerable in 17+ toss-up and lean battleground districts per Sabato's Crystal Ball ratings updated April 21. The tight clustering across low-190s bins underscores uncertainty from candidate recruitment, retirements, and redistricting rulings; separation could arise from economic shifts, approval rebounds, primary outcomes, or turnout in swing states before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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