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Politics·Midterms

IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Politics·Midterms

IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner

André Carson 98.4%

Destiny Scott Wells 1.1%

Denise Paul Hatch <1%

George Hornedo <1%

Polymarket

$22,319 Vol.

André Carson 98.4%

Destiny Scott Wells 1.1%

Denise Paul Hatch <1%

George Hornedo <1%

Polymarket

$22,319 Vol.

André Carson

$10,615 Vol.

98%

Destiny Scott Wells

$1,437 Vol.

1%

Denise Paul Hatch

$8,214 Vol.

1%

George Hornedo

$2,053 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent U.S. Rep. André Carson commands 98% trader consensus as IN-07 Democratic primary winner on May 5, driven by his 18-year tenure, dominant fundraising ($559,000 cash-on-hand versus under $15,000 each for challengers Destiny Wells, George Hornedo, and Denise Paul Hatch per latest FEC filings), and endorsements from unions like AFL-CIO alongside groups such as Planned Parenthood. Recent campaign finance reports through mid-April underscore challengers' funding gaps despite late entries and criticisms of Carson's effectiveness, with no public polls indicating upset potential amid ongoing early voting. While incumbency historically yields high primary reelection rates, scenarios like a major scandal, surprise turnout surge, or health issue could shift odds in this safe D+21 district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$22,319
End Date
May 5, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 1:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent U.S. Rep. André Carson commands 98% trader consensus as IN-07 Democratic primary winner on May 5, driven by his 18-year tenure, dominant fundraising ($559,000 cash-on-hand versus under $15,000 each for challengers Destiny Wells, George Hornedo, and Denise Paul Hatch per latest FEC filings), and endorsements from unions like AFL-CIO alongside groups such as Planned Parenthood. Recent campaign finance reports through mid-April underscore challengers' funding gaps despite late entries and criticisms of Carson's effectiveness, with no public polls indicating upset potential amid ongoing early voting. While incumbency historically yields high primary reelection rates, scenarios like a major scandal, surprise turnout surge, or health issue could shift odds in this safe D+21 district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 5, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$22,319
End Date
May 5, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 20, 2026, 1:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the IN-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "André Carson" at 98%, followed by "Destiny Scott Wells" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner" has generated $22.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner" is "André Carson" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Destiny Scott Wells" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "IN-07 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.