Recent May 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.94% year-over-year from 4.45% in April has reinforced trader focus on the 4.00–4.49% bracket for Mexico’s full-year 2026 rate, while also lifting the 2.50–2.99% outcome amid accelerating disinflation. Banxico’s 25-basis-point cut to a 6.50% policy rate in May, combined with subdued GDP forecasts of 0.8–1.8% and fiscal tightening, supports expectations for continued moderation toward the 3% target by 2027, though core services inflation near 4.6% and upside risks from global energy prices introduce uncertainty. Analyst surveys show year-end 2026 projections clustered around 3.9–4.4%, creating closely matched probabilities that hinge on upcoming June–July CPI prints and Banxico communications.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4.00% a 4.49% 30%
3.50% a 3.99% 18.7%
4.50% a 4.99% 13%
5.00% a 5.49% 9.8%
$42,226 Vol.
$42,226 Vol.
8 ene 2027
<2.50%
6%
2.50% a 2.99%
20%
3.00% a 3.49%
1%
3.50% a 3.99%
19%
4.00% a 4.49%
30%
4.50% a 4.99%
19%
5.00% a 5.49%
10%
5.50%+
26%
4.00% a 4.49% 30%
3.50% a 3.99% 18.7%
4.50% a 4.99% 13%
5.00% a 5.49% 9.8%
$42,226 Vol.
$42,226 Vol.
8 ene 2027
<2.50%
$575 Vol.
6%
2.50% a 2.99%
$4,369 Vol.
20%
3.00% a 3.49%
$26,029 Vol.
1%
3.50% a 3.99%
$458 Vol.
19%
4.00% a 4.49%
$573 Vol.
30%
4.50% a 4.99%
$3,668 Vol.
19%
5.00% a 5.49%
$1,456 Vol.
10%
5.50%+
$5,099 Vol.
26%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent May 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.94% year-over-year from 4.45% in April has reinforced trader focus on the 4.00–4.49% bracket for Mexico’s full-year 2026 rate, while also lifting the 2.50–2.99% outcome amid accelerating disinflation. Banxico’s 25-basis-point cut to a 6.50% policy rate in May, combined with subdued GDP forecasts of 0.8–1.8% and fiscal tightening, supports expectations for continued moderation toward the 3% target by 2027, though core services inflation near 4.6% and upside risks from global energy prices introduce uncertainty. Analyst surveys show year-end 2026 projections clustered around 3.9–4.4%, creating closely matched probabilities that hinge on upcoming June–July CPI prints and Banxico communications.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Mercado abierto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$42,226Fecha de finalización
8 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent May 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.94% year-over-year from 4.45% in April has reinforced trader focus on the 4.00–4.49% bracket for Mexico’s full-year 2026 rate, while also lifting the 2.50–2.99% outcome amid accelerating disinflation. Banxico’s 25-basis-point cut to a 6.50% policy rate in May, combined with subdued GDP forecasts of 0.8–1.8% and fiscal tightening, supports expectations for continued moderation toward the 3% target by 2027, though core services inflation near 4.6% and upside risks from global energy prices introduce uncertainty. Analyst surveys show year-end 2026 projections clustered around 3.9–4.4%, creating closely matched probabilities that hinge on upcoming June–July CPI prints and Banxico communications.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volumen
$42,226Fecha de finalización
8 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent May 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.94% year-over-year from 4.45% in April has reinforced trader focus on the 4.00–4.49% bracket for Mexico’s full-year 2026 rate, while also lifting the 2.50–2.99% outcome amid accelerating disinflation. Banxico’s 25-basis-point cut to a 6.50% policy rate in May, combined with subdued GDP forecasts of 0.8–1.8% and fiscal tightening, supports expectations for continued moderation toward the 3% target by 2027, though core services inflation near 4.6% and upside risks from global energy prices introduce uncertainty. Analyst surveys show year-end 2026 projections clustered around 3.9–4.4%, creating closely matched probabilities that hinge on upcoming June–July CPI prints and Banxico communications.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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