Skip to main content
icon for Mexico Annual Inflation 2026
Economy·Inflation

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

icon for Mexico Annual Inflation 2026
Economy·Inflation

Mexico Annual Inflation 2026

4.00% to 4.49% 32%

3.50% to 3.99% 18.1%

4.50% to 4.99% 13%

5.00% to 5.49% 9.8%

Polymarket

$42,226 Vol.

4.00% to 4.49% 32%

3.50% to 3.99% 18.1%

4.50% to 4.99% 13%

5.00% to 5.49% 9.8%

Polymarket

$42,226 Vol.

<2.50%

$575 Vol.

5%

2.50% to 2.99%

$4,369 Vol.

34%

3.00% to 3.49%

$26,029 Vol.

1%

3.50% to 3.99%

$458 Vol.

18%

4.00% to 4.49%

$573 Vol.

32%

4.50% to 4.99%

$3,668 Vol.

19%

5.00% to 5.49%

$1,456 Vol.

10%

5.50%+

$5,099 Vol.

14%

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioMexico's recent disinflation, with annual CPI easing to 3.94% in May 2026 from 4.45% in April, underpins trader focus on the 4.00-4.49% band for full-year 2026 average inflation. Banxico's May forecast and policy rate cut to 6.50% reflect cooling pressures aided by expanded energy subsidies and livestock price declines, though persistent services inflation and global oil volatility introduce upside risks. Market-implied odds favor outcomes near 4%, consistent with IMF projections around 3.9% and Banxico's revised 4.5% estimate, while the dispersed probabilities highlight uncertainty over labor market dynamics, MXN strength, and the pace of further monetary easing ahead of key 2026 data releases.

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.

The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$42,226
End Date
Jan 8, 2027
Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioMexico's recent disinflation, with annual CPI easing to 3.94% in May 2026 from 4.45% in April, underpins trader focus on the 4.00-4.49% band for full-year 2026 average inflation. Banxico's May forecast and policy rate cut to 6.50% reflect cooling pressures aided by expanded energy subsidies and livestock price declines, though persistent services inflation and global oil volatility introduce upside risks. Market-implied odds favor outcomes near 4%, consistent with IMF projections around 3.9% and Banxico's revised 4.5% estimate, while the dispersed probabilities highlight uncertainty over labor market dynamics, MXN strength, and the pace of further monetary easing ahead of key 2026 data releases.

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.

The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.

The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/

Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$42,226
End Date
Jan 8, 2027
Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario

Related

icon for Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%?

Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%?

32%
icon for Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?

Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%?

26%
icon for Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 4.50%?

Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 4.50%?

87%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Mexico Annual Inflation 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2.50% to 2.99%" at 34%, followed by "4.00% to 4.49%" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Mexico Annual Inflation 2026" has generated $42.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Mexico Annual Inflation 2026," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Mexico Annual Inflation 2026" is "2.50% to 2.99%" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4.00% to 4.49%" at 33%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Mexico Annual Inflation 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.