SpaceX commands an 88% implied probability as 2026's largest IPO by market cap, driven by its April 1 confidential S-1 filing and early June roadshow plans targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation, anchored in Starlink's projected $20-24 billion revenue from satellite internet expansion. February's merger with xAI—now a unified entity per Elon Musk's announcement—integrates AI capabilities like Grok models, bolstering the combined powerhouse and sustaining xAI's 25.5% secondary odds amid consolidation speculation. Anthropic (6.2%) and OpenAI (4.0%) trail on vaguer timelines, with OpenAI facing headwinds from recent user and revenue shortfalls; traders monitor SpaceX's testing-the-waters meetings and regulatory nods as key catalysts before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSpaceX 88%
Anthropic 6.1%
OpenAI 4.0%
Databricks 1.5%
$1,799,933 Vol.
$1,799,933 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
88%
Anthropic
6%
OpenAI
4%
Databricks
2%
Discord
1%
Kraken
1%
Revolut
1%
Waymo
<1%
Stripe
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
SpaceX 88%
Anthropic 6.1%
OpenAI 4.0%
Databricks 1.5%
$1,799,933 Vol.
$1,799,933 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
$219,420 Vol.
88%
Anthropic
$354,397 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$335,099 Vol.
4%
Databricks
$77,275 Vol.
2%
Discord
$77,009 Vol.
1%
Kraken
$381,276 Vol.
1%
Revolut
$43,490 Vol.
1%
Waymo
$53,882 Vol.
<1%
Stripe
$44,621 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$59,418 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$61,454 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$92,593 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX commands an 88% implied probability as 2026's largest IPO by market cap, driven by its April 1 confidential S-1 filing and early June roadshow plans targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation, anchored in Starlink's projected $20-24 billion revenue from satellite internet expansion. February's merger with xAI—now a unified entity per Elon Musk's announcement—integrates AI capabilities like Grok models, bolstering the combined powerhouse and sustaining xAI's 25.5% secondary odds amid consolidation speculation. Anthropic (6.2%) and OpenAI (4.0%) trail on vaguer timelines, with OpenAI facing headwinds from recent user and revenue shortfalls; traders monitor SpaceX's testing-the-waters meetings and regulatory nods as key catalysts before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volume
$1,799,933End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX commands an 88% implied probability as 2026's largest IPO by market cap, driven by its April 1 confidential S-1 filing and early June roadshow plans targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation, anchored in Starlink's projected $20-24 billion revenue from satellite internet expansion. February's merger with xAI—now a unified entity per Elon Musk's announcement—integrates AI capabilities like Grok models, bolstering the combined powerhouse and sustaining xAI's 25.5% secondary odds amid consolidation speculation. Anthropic (6.2%) and OpenAI (4.0%) trail on vaguer timelines, with OpenAI facing headwinds from recent user and revenue shortfalls; traders monitor SpaceX's testing-the-waters meetings and regulatory nods as key catalysts before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,799,933End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX commands an 88% implied probability as 2026's largest IPO by market cap, driven by its April 1 confidential S-1 filing and early June roadshow plans targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation, anchored in Starlink's projected $20-24 billion revenue from satellite internet expansion. February's merger with xAI—now a unified entity per Elon Musk's announcement—integrates AI capabilities like Grok models, bolstering the combined powerhouse and sustaining xAI's 25.5% secondary odds amid consolidation speculation. Anthropic (6.2%) and OpenAI (4.0%) trail on vaguer timelines, with OpenAI facing headwinds from recent user and revenue shortfalls; traders monitor SpaceX's testing-the-waters meetings and regulatory nods as key catalysts before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions