SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing on April 1 has catalyzed trader consensus around a mid-2026 IPO, with implied probabilities heavily favoring a closing market cap of $1.5T–2.5T (62% combined), aligning with reported targets of $1.75T amid plans for a June roadshow and up to $75B raise. Surging Starlink revenue—projected at $22B–$24B for 2026 from satellite broadband expansion—and Starship V3 milestones, including recent static-fire tests and Flight 12 eyed for early May, underpin this positioning by validating reusable rocket scalability and orbital deployment cadence. Lower buckets reflect execution risks like FAA approvals or launch delays, while "No IPO before 2028" odds plunged post-filing. Public S-1 disclosure looms as the next sentiment driver.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,915,553 Vol.
$1,915,553 Vol.
<1.0T
6%
1.0T-1.5T
10%
1.5T-2.0T
36%
2.0T-2.5T
26%
2.5T-3.0T
16%
3.0T-3.5T
4%
3.5T+
2%
No IPO before 2028
3%
$1,915,553 Vol.
$1,915,553 Vol.
<1.0T
$69,279 Vol.
6%
1.0T-1.5T
$56,363 Vol.
10%
1.5T-2.0T
$61,351 Vol.
36%
2.0T-2.5T
$91,257 Vol.
26%
2.5T-3.0T
$811,556 Vol.
16%
3.0T-3.5T
$482,469 Vol.
4%
3.5T+
$65,882 Vol.
2%
No IPO before 2028
$277,394 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing on April 1 has catalyzed trader consensus around a mid-2026 IPO, with implied probabilities heavily favoring a closing market cap of $1.5T–2.5T (62% combined), aligning with reported targets of $1.75T amid plans for a June roadshow and up to $75B raise. Surging Starlink revenue—projected at $22B–$24B for 2026 from satellite broadband expansion—and Starship V3 milestones, including recent static-fire tests and Flight 12 eyed for early May, underpin this positioning by validating reusable rocket scalability and orbital deployment cadence. Lower buckets reflect execution risks like FAA approvals or launch delays, while "No IPO before 2028" odds plunged post-filing. Public S-1 disclosure looms as the next sentiment driver.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
Volume
$1,915,553Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing on April 1 has catalyzed trader consensus around a mid-2026 IPO, with implied probabilities heavily favoring a closing market cap of $1.5T–2.5T (62% combined), aligning with reported targets of $1.75T amid plans for a June roadshow and up to $75B raise. Surging Starlink revenue—projected at $22B–$24B for 2026 from satellite broadband expansion—and Starship V3 milestones, including recent static-fire tests and Flight 12 eyed for early May, underpin this positioning by validating reusable rocket scalability and orbital deployment cadence. Lower buckets reflect execution risks like FAA approvals or launch delays, while "No IPO before 2028" odds plunged post-filing. Public S-1 disclosure looms as the next sentiment driver.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,915,553Market Opened
Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing on April 1 has catalyzed trader consensus around a mid-2026 IPO, with implied probabilities heavily favoring a closing market cap of $1.5T–2.5T (62% combined), aligning with reported targets of $1.75T amid plans for a June roadshow and up to $75B raise. Surging Starlink revenue—projected at $22B–$24B for 2026 from satellite broadband expansion—and Starship V3 milestones, including recent static-fire tests and Flight 12 eyed for early May, underpin this positioning by validating reusable rocket scalability and orbital deployment cadence. Lower buckets reflect execution risks like FAA approvals or launch delays, while "No IPO before 2028" odds plunged post-filing. Public S-1 disclosure looms as the next sentiment driver.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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