Trader consensus prices an 85.5% chance against a coup attempt in Iran by June 30, anchored by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) entrenched dominance and lack of verified elite defections or military fractures amid the ongoing 2026 US-Israel war. Mid-April rumors of IRGC house arrests on President Pezeshkian, Speaker Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Araghchi—to derail ceasefire talks—dissipated without evidence, dismissed by analysts as longstanding factional power shifts rather than a coup. On April 29, Ghalibaf publicly claimed a failed US infiltration plot near Isfahan, signaling regime cohesion. With protests suppressed and no unified opposition, traders anticipate continued stability barring major war escalations or internal betrayals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$656,529 Vol.
$656,529 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$656,529 Vol.
$656,529 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices an 85.5% chance against a coup attempt in Iran by June 30, anchored by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) entrenched dominance and lack of verified elite defections or military fractures amid the ongoing 2026 US-Israel war. Mid-April rumors of IRGC house arrests on President Pezeshkian, Speaker Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Araghchi—to derail ceasefire talks—dissipated without evidence, dismissed by analysts as longstanding factional power shifts rather than a coup. On April 29, Ghalibaf publicly claimed a failed US infiltration plot near Isfahan, signaling regime cohesion. With protests suppressed and no unified opposition, traders anticipate continued stability barring major war escalations or internal betrayals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$656,529End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices an 85.5% chance against a coup attempt in Iran by June 30, anchored by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) entrenched dominance and lack of verified elite defections or military fractures amid the ongoing 2026 US-Israel war. Mid-April rumors of IRGC house arrests on President Pezeshkian, Speaker Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Araghchi—to derail ceasefire talks—dissipated without evidence, dismissed by analysts as longstanding factional power shifts rather than a coup. On April 29, Ghalibaf publicly claimed a failed US infiltration plot near Isfahan, signaling regime cohesion. With protests suppressed and no unified opposition, traders anticipate continued stability barring major war escalations or internal betrayals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$656,529End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 85.5% chance against a coup attempt in Iran by June 30, anchored by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) entrenched dominance and lack of verified elite defections or military fractures amid the ongoing 2026 US-Israel war. Mid-April rumors of IRGC house arrests on President Pezeshkian, Speaker Ghalibaf, and Foreign Minister Araghchi—to derail ceasefire talks—dissipated without evidence, dismissed by analysts as longstanding factional power shifts rather than a coup. On April 29, Ghalibaf publicly claimed a failed US infiltration plot near Isfahan, signaling regime cohesion. With protests suppressed and no unified opposition, traders anticipate continued stability barring major war escalations or internal betrayals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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