The Iranian regime’s rapid consolidation of power following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes and the transition to Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader has anchored trader expectations against any coup attempt by late June. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has reinforced control through security appointments and leadership posts, while containing earlier protest activity without documented elite or military defections. Persistent economic strains and ongoing diplomatic talks over ceasefires and sanctions relief have produced no evident institutional fractures in the narrow pre-resolution period. Realistic developments that could still alter the outlook include abrupt factional clashes among hardliners or a sudden external escalation exposing leadership rifts, though current indicators show no such catalysts emerging.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,770,810 Vol.
$1,770,810 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$1,770,810 Vol.
$1,770,810 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime’s rapid consolidation of power following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes and the transition to Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader has anchored trader expectations against any coup attempt by late June. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has reinforced control through security appointments and leadership posts, while containing earlier protest activity without documented elite or military defections. Persistent economic strains and ongoing diplomatic talks over ceasefires and sanctions relief have produced no evident institutional fractures in the narrow pre-resolution period. Realistic developments that could still alter the outlook include abrupt factional clashes among hardliners or a sudden external escalation exposing leadership rifts, though current indicators show no such catalysts emerging.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$1,770,810End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime’s rapid consolidation of power following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes and the transition to Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader has anchored trader expectations against any coup attempt by late June. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has reinforced control through security appointments and leadership posts, while containing earlier protest activity without documented elite or military defections. Persistent economic strains and ongoing diplomatic talks over ceasefires and sanctions relief have produced no evident institutional fractures in the narrow pre-resolution period. Realistic developments that could still alter the outlook include abrupt factional clashes among hardliners or a sudden external escalation exposing leadership rifts, though current indicators show no such catalysts emerging.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,770,810End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime’s rapid consolidation of power following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes and the transition to Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader has anchored trader expectations against any coup attempt by late June. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has reinforced control through security appointments and leadership posts, while containing earlier protest activity without documented elite or military defections. Persistent economic strains and ongoing diplomatic talks over ceasefires and sanctions relief have produced no evident institutional fractures in the narrow pre-resolution period. Realistic developments that could still alter the outlook include abrupt factional clashes among hardliners or a sudden external escalation exposing leadership rifts, though current indicators show no such catalysts emerging.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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