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icon for Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

icon for Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?

Dec 31

Dec 31

42% chance
Polymarket

$13,858 Vol.

42% chance
Polymarket

$13,858 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Howard Lutnick has served as Secretary of Commerce since his February 2025 Senate confirmation and remains in the role as of mid-2026, overseeing trade policy, economic data agencies, and related functions under the Trump administration. Recent developments center on May 2026 House Oversight Committee scrutiny and Democratic calls for resignation over inconsistencies in his statements about past interactions with Jeffrey Epstein, including a 2012 island visit documented in released files that conflicted with earlier public comments; these partisan demands have not prompted any administration action or removal. Lutnick continues active duties, including April 2026 budget testimony before Senate and House appropriations panels and public commentary on growth targets. With more than six months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution date and no signals of presidential removal or voluntary exit, trader consensus on the 58% probability of "No" aligns with historical patterns of cabinet stability in aligned administrations absent overriding institutional or legal pressures.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$13,858
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Howard Lutnick has served as Secretary of Commerce since his February 2025 Senate confirmation and remains in the role as of mid-2026, overseeing trade policy, economic data agencies, and related functions under the Trump administration. Recent developments center on May 2026 House Oversight Committee scrutiny and Democratic calls for resignation over inconsistencies in his statements about past interactions with Jeffrey Epstein, including a 2012 island visit documented in released files that conflicted with earlier public comments; these partisan demands have not prompted any administration action or removal. Lutnick continues active duties, including April 2026 budget testimony before Senate and House appropriations panels and public commentary on growth targets. With more than six months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution date and no signals of presidential removal or voluntary exit, trader consensus on the 58% probability of "No" aligns with historical patterns of cabinet stability in aligned administrations absent overriding institutional or legal pressures.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$13,858
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Howard Lutnick ceases to be the US Secretary of Commerce for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lutnick's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 42% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 42¢, the market collectively assigns a 42% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?" has generated $13.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 31, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?" is 42% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 42% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.