Trader consensus heavily favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 (84.5% implied probability), propelled by an exceptionally active season start with 451 confirmed reports through late April—80% above the 1991–2020 average per NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. March logged 280 preliminary year-to-date tornadoes amid multiple outbreaks, while April surged with 257 confirmed, including the major April 17–18 Midwest-Plains event (over 80 tornadoes) and the violent April 23–28 sequence featuring an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma. Favorable severe weather parameters like high CAPE and wind shear, under neutral ENSO conditions transitioning toward El Niño, support expectations of above-normal activity through the May–June peak. SPC outlooks and model consensus will refine probabilities, though preliminary counts often revise downward 10–20% upon final surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 83%
1200–1249 10.1%
1150–1199 5.2%
1050–1099 2.3%
$71,073 Vol.
$71,073 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
2%
1100–1149
2%
1150–1199
7%
1200–1249
10%
1250+
83%
1250+ 83%
1200–1249 10.1%
1150–1199 5.2%
1050–1099 2.3%
$71,073 Vol.
$71,073 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$22,324 Vol.
1%
950–999
$2,679 Vol.
<1%
1000–1049
$2,221 Vol.
1%
1050–1099
$7,869 Vol.
2%
1100–1149
$1,955 Vol.
2%
1150–1199
$2,402 Vol.
7%
1200–1249
$15,069 Vol.
10%
1250+
$16,553 Vol.
83%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus heavily favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 (84.5% implied probability), propelled by an exceptionally active season start with 451 confirmed reports through late April—80% above the 1991–2020 average per NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. March logged 280 preliminary year-to-date tornadoes amid multiple outbreaks, while April surged with 257 confirmed, including the major April 17–18 Midwest-Plains event (over 80 tornadoes) and the violent April 23–28 sequence featuring an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma. Favorable severe weather parameters like high CAPE and wind shear, under neutral ENSO conditions transitioning toward El Niño, support expectations of above-normal activity through the May–June peak. SPC outlooks and model consensus will refine probabilities, though preliminary counts often revise downward 10–20% upon final surveys.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$71,073End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus heavily favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 (84.5% implied probability), propelled by an exceptionally active season start with 451 confirmed reports through late April—80% above the 1991–2020 average per NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. March logged 280 preliminary year-to-date tornadoes amid multiple outbreaks, while April surged with 257 confirmed, including the major April 17–18 Midwest-Plains event (over 80 tornadoes) and the violent April 23–28 sequence featuring an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma. Favorable severe weather parameters like high CAPE and wind shear, under neutral ENSO conditions transitioning toward El Niño, support expectations of above-normal activity through the May–June peak. SPC outlooks and model consensus will refine probabilities, though preliminary counts often revise downward 10–20% upon final surveys.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$71,073End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 1250+ US tornadoes in 2026 (84.5% implied probability), propelled by an exceptionally active season start with 451 confirmed reports through late April—80% above the 1991–2020 average per NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. March logged 280 preliminary year-to-date tornadoes amid multiple outbreaks, while April surged with 257 confirmed, including the major April 17–18 Midwest-Plains event (over 80 tornadoes) and the violent April 23–28 sequence featuring an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma. Favorable severe weather parameters like high CAPE and wind shear, under neutral ENSO conditions transitioning toward El Niño, support expectations of above-normal activity through the May–June peak. SPC outlooks and model consensus will refine probabilities, though preliminary counts often revise downward 10–20% upon final surveys.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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