Trader consensus heavily favors 8–9 ships successfully targeted by Iran at 93%, reflecting a sharp decline in verified attacks amid depleted Iranian naval capabilities following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that destroyed over 100 IRGC vessels since the February 28 war onset. The count reached this range after April 22 incidents, where Iranian forces fired on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, seizing Epaminondas and MSC Francesca while damaging others, but no confirmed hits have occurred in the ensuing week despite the April 30 deadline. Ceasefire extensions by President Trump, ongoing U.S. blockades, and mine-clearing operations have deterred escalation, stranding thousands of mariners. A late surge—such as unverified IRGC claims or drone strikes—could push toward 10+, though Iran's weakened missile and small-boat fleet makes this unlikely absent major de-escalation failure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
$254,423 Vol.
$254,423 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
8–9
91%
10+
5%
$254,423 Vol.
$254,423 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
8–9
$34,984 Vol.
91%
10+
$52,973 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors 8–9 ships successfully targeted by Iran at 93%, reflecting a sharp decline in verified attacks amid depleted Iranian naval capabilities following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that destroyed over 100 IRGC vessels since the February 28 war onset. The count reached this range after April 22 incidents, where Iranian forces fired on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, seizing Epaminondas and MSC Francesca while damaging others, but no confirmed hits have occurred in the ensuing week despite the April 30 deadline. Ceasefire extensions by President Trump, ongoing U.S. blockades, and mine-clearing operations have deterred escalation, stranding thousands of mariners. A late surge—such as unverified IRGC claims or drone strikes—could push toward 10+, though Iran's weakened missile and small-boat fleet makes this unlikely absent major de-escalation failure.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Volume
$254,423End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors 8–9 ships successfully targeted by Iran at 93%, reflecting a sharp decline in verified attacks amid depleted Iranian naval capabilities following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that destroyed over 100 IRGC vessels since the February 28 war onset. The count reached this range after April 22 incidents, where Iranian forces fired on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, seizing Epaminondas and MSC Francesca while damaging others, but no confirmed hits have occurred in the ensuing week despite the April 30 deadline. Ceasefire extensions by President Trump, ongoing U.S. blockades, and mine-clearing operations have deterred escalation, stranding thousands of mariners. A late surge—such as unverified IRGC claims or drone strikes—could push toward 10+, though Iran's weakened missile and small-boat fleet makes this unlikely absent major de-escalation failure.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$254,423End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 8–9 ships successfully targeted by Iran at 93%, reflecting a sharp decline in verified attacks amid depleted Iranian naval capabilities following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes that destroyed over 100 IRGC vessels since the February 28 war onset. The count reached this range after April 22 incidents, where Iranian forces fired on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, seizing Epaminondas and MSC Francesca while damaging others, but no confirmed hits have occurred in the ensuing week despite the April 30 deadline. Ceasefire extensions by President Trump, ongoing U.S. blockades, and mine-clearing operations have deterred escalation, stranding thousands of mariners. A late surge—such as unverified IRGC claims or drone strikes—could push toward 10+, though Iran's weakened missile and small-boat fleet makes this unlikely absent major de-escalation failure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions