Trader consensus prices 8–9 successful Iranian kinetic strikes or seizures on distinct commercial vessels at virtually 100%, reflecting a confirmed tally of eight such direct IRGC actions in the Strait of Hormuz since late March amid the 2026 Iran war, with the April 22 seizures of Epaminondas and MSC-Francesca cargo ships as the most recent verified incidents. Iran's naval capabilities, decimated by early U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, limited further escalation, while U.S. carrier group deployments enforcing blockades, April 23 ceasefire extensions, and near-zero transits deterred additional attacks through April 30. Late-breaking credible reports confirming a ninth or disputed tenth qualifying strike could challenge resolution, though no such developments emerged by deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
How many ships will Iran successfully target by April 30?
$261,979 Vol.
$261,979 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
8–9
100%
10+
<1%
$261,979 Vol.
$261,979 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
8–9
$39,409 Vol.
100%
10+
$56,694 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices 8–9 successful Iranian kinetic strikes or seizures on distinct commercial vessels at virtually 100%, reflecting a confirmed tally of eight such direct IRGC actions in the Strait of Hormuz since late March amid the 2026 Iran war, with the April 22 seizures of Epaminondas and MSC-Francesca cargo ships as the most recent verified incidents. Iran's naval capabilities, decimated by early U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, limited further escalation, while U.S. carrier group deployments enforcing blockades, April 23 ceasefire extensions, and near-zero transits deterred additional attacks through April 30. Late-breaking credible reports confirming a ninth or disputed tenth qualifying strike could challenge resolution, though no such developments emerged by deadline.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
Volume
$261,979End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices 8–9 successful Iranian kinetic strikes or seizures on distinct commercial vessels at virtually 100%, reflecting a confirmed tally of eight such direct IRGC actions in the Strait of Hormuz since late March amid the 2026 Iran war, with the April 22 seizures of Epaminondas and MSC-Francesca cargo ships as the most recent verified incidents. Iran's naval capabilities, decimated by early U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, limited further escalation, while U.S. carrier group deployments enforcing blockades, April 23 ceasefire extensions, and near-zero transits deterred additional attacks through April 30. Late-breaking credible reports confirming a ninth or disputed tenth qualifying strike could challenge resolution, though no such developments emerged by deadline.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$261,979End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
Trader consensus prices 8–9 successful Iranian kinetic strikes or seizures on distinct commercial vessels at virtually 100%, reflecting a confirmed tally of eight such direct IRGC actions in the Strait of Hormuz since late March amid the 2026 Iran war, with the April 22 seizures of Epaminondas and MSC-Francesca cargo ships as the most recent verified incidents. Iran's naval capabilities, decimated by early U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, limited further escalation, while U.S. carrier group deployments enforcing blockades, April 23 ceasefire extensions, and near-zero transits deterred additional attacks through April 30. Late-breaking credible reports confirming a ninth or disputed tenth qualifying strike could challenge resolution, though no such developments emerged by deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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