Skip to main content
icon for How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
Politics·US Election

How many Republican House members not running in 2026?

icon for How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
Politics·US Election

How many Republican House members not running in 2026?

28–31 19%

<24 5.6%

32–35 5.0%

24–27 3.5%

Polymarket

$55,426 Vol.

28–31 19%

<24 5.6%

32–35 5.0%

24–27 3.5%

Polymarket

$55,426 Vol.

<24

$3,590 Vol.

6%

24–27

$18,843 Vol.

4%

28–31

$21,425 Vol.

19%

32–35

$4,502 Vol.

5%

36–39

$2,468 Vol.

30%

40–43

$2,077 Vol.

44%

44+

$2,522 Vol.

36%

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.With 37 Republican House incumbents now confirmed not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms—including Rep. Daniel Webster's April 28 retirement announcement and a March cluster featuring Reps. Sam Graves, Kevin Hern, Darrell Issa, Burgess Owens, and Ryan Zinke—trader consensus prices 40–43 departures at 46% and 44+ at 41%, implying expectations of 5–10 more amid a record wave surpassing prior cycles. This tight contest reflects historical patterns of late-cycle announcements from vulnerable districts, older lawmakers, and those eyeing open Senate or gubernatorial races, plus mid-decade redistricting pressures in key states. A slowdown in disclosures or primary filing deadlines could favor lower bins, while fresh retirements from battleground seats would boost higher outcomes.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$55,426
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.With 37 Republican House incumbents now confirmed not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms—including Rep. Daniel Webster's April 28 retirement announcement and a March cluster featuring Reps. Sam Graves, Kevin Hern, Darrell Issa, Burgess Owens, and Ryan Zinke—trader consensus prices 40–43 departures at 46% and 44+ at 41%, implying expectations of 5–10 more amid a record wave surpassing prior cycles. This tight contest reflects historical patterns of late-cycle announcements from vulnerable districts, older lawmakers, and those eyeing open Senate or gubernatorial races, plus mid-decade redistricting pressures in key states. A slowdown in disclosures or primary filing deadlines could favor lower bins, while fresh retirements from battleground seats would boost higher outcomes.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$55,426
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Related

icon for Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7?

Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 7?

51%
icon for Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 24 and 27 inclusive?

Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 24 and 27 inclusive?

29%
icon for Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

33%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many Republican House members not running in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "40–43" at 44%, followed by "44+" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many Republican House members not running in 2026?" has generated $55.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many Republican House members not running in 2026?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many Republican House members not running in 2026?" is "40–43" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "44+" at 36%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many Republican House members not running in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.