**Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (66.5% implied probability), consistent with the low historical frequency of such events.** Large explosive eruptions meeting the VEI 4 threshold—typically involving at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 km—occur on average roughly once every 18 months globally, with many calendar years recording none. As of mid-June 2026, no confirmed VEI ≥4 events have been recorded, though an ongoing submarine eruption at Titan Ridge (Bismarck Sea, started May 2026) has produced notable plumes and pumice but awaits final classification. Ongoing monitoring by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and agencies like USGS shows mostly smaller or effusive activity elsewhere, with no near-term forecasts indicating imminent large explosive events. This scarcity of confirmed large eruptions, combined with the inherent variability and uncertainty in volcanic forecasting, underpins the strong market weighting toward zero or one for the full year.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántas erupciones volcánicas grandes (VEI ≥4) en 2026?
¿Cuántas erupciones volcánicas grandes (VEI ≥4) en 2026?
0 67%
1 20%
2 4.5%
3 1.2%
$1,145,718 Vol.
$1,145,718 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0
67%
1
20%
2
5%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 67%
1 20%
2 4.5%
3 1.2%
$1,145,718 Vol.
$1,145,718 Vol.
31 dic 2026
0
$498,131 Vol.
67%
1
$270,864 Vol.
20%
2
$38,832 Vol.
5%
3
$30,748 Vol.
1%
4
$33,045 Vol.
1%
5+
$274,098 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (66.5% implied probability), consistent with the low historical frequency of such events.** Large explosive eruptions meeting the VEI 4 threshold—typically involving at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 km—occur on average roughly once every 18 months globally, with many calendar years recording none. As of mid-June 2026, no confirmed VEI ≥4 events have been recorded, though an ongoing submarine eruption at Titan Ridge (Bismarck Sea, started May 2026) has produced notable plumes and pumice but awaits final classification. Ongoing monitoring by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and agencies like USGS shows mostly smaller or effusive activity elsewhere, with no near-term forecasts indicating imminent large explosive events. This scarcity of confirmed large eruptions, combined with the inherent variability and uncertainty in volcanic forecasting, underpins the strong market weighting toward zero or one for the full year.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volumen
$1,145,718Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (66.5% implied probability), consistent with the low historical frequency of such events.** Large explosive eruptions meeting the VEI 4 threshold—typically involving at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 km—occur on average roughly once every 18 months globally, with many calendar years recording none. As of mid-June 2026, no confirmed VEI ≥4 events have been recorded, though an ongoing submarine eruption at Titan Ridge (Bismarck Sea, started May 2026) has produced notable plumes and pumice but awaits final classification. Ongoing monitoring by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and agencies like USGS shows mostly smaller or effusive activity elsewhere, with no near-term forecasts indicating imminent large explosive events. This scarcity of confirmed large eruptions, combined with the inherent variability and uncertainty in volcanic forecasting, underpins the strong market weighting toward zero or one for the full year.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,145,718Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 (66.5% implied probability), consistent with the low historical frequency of such events.** Large explosive eruptions meeting the VEI 4 threshold—typically involving at least 0.1 km³ of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 km—occur on average roughly once every 18 months globally, with many calendar years recording none. As of mid-June 2026, no confirmed VEI ≥4 events have been recorded, though an ongoing submarine eruption at Titan Ridge (Bismarck Sea, started May 2026) has produced notable plumes and pumice but awaits final classification. Ongoing monitoring by the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program and agencies like USGS shows mostly smaller or effusive activity elsewhere, with no near-term forecasts indicating imminent large explosive events. This scarcity of confirmed large eruptions, combined with the inherent variability and uncertainty in volcanic forecasting, underpins the strong market weighting toward zero or one for the full year.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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