SpaceX's V3 Starship, which debuted on Flight 12 in May 2026 with upgraded Raptor 3 engines and enhanced avionics for rapid reuse, has advanced booster tower catches and partial engine reuse from prior tests, yet the upper stage still faces relight failures, heat shield durability issues, and controlled reentry challenges that prevent full-stack reusability today. Trader sentiment at 61% for "Yes" before 2028 reflects Musk's repeated 2026 timeline targets for catching both stages alongside demonstrated progress in V3 ground tests and Flight 13 preparations, tempered by historical delays in ship recovery and the need for reliable orbital refueling demos. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming integrated flights testing ship catch attempts and propellant transfer, where faster iteration could strengthen consensus or expose further technical barriers.