Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 73% implied probability to fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, driven by persistent delays in the program's inaugural Version 3 flight test—Flight 12—now pushed into late Q2 amid hardware integration challenges with the elongated Starship upper stage, upgraded Raptor 3 engines, and redesigned Super Heavy booster. No Starship flights have occurred in 2026 to date, following five tests in 2025 that achieved incremental successes like soft landings and payload deployment but highlighted reliability issues and FAA licensing hurdles. Recent static fire tests of Booster 19 and Ship 39 signal progress, yet historical cadence (two launches in 2023, four in 2024, five in 2025) and Starbase infrastructure constraints temper expectations for rapid scaling, with 5-6 launches at 19% reflecting cautious optimism if V3 proves reliable. Key catalysts include Flight 12's outcome and potential tower catch attempts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?
¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?
<5 73%
5-6 19%
7-8 13.0%
11-12 4.8%
$444,907 Vol.
$444,907 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
73%
5-6
19%
7-8
9%
9-10
4%
11-12
5%
13-14
4%
15-16
<1%
>16
3%
<5 73%
5-6 19%
7-8 13.0%
11-12 4.8%
$444,907 Vol.
$444,907 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
$89,453 Vol.
73%
5-6
$107,523 Vol.
19%
7-8
$151,283 Vol.
9%
9-10
$55,314 Vol.
4%
11-12
$3,447 Vol.
5%
13-14
$4,496 Vol.
4%
15-16
$24,573 Vol.
<1%
>16
$8,819 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 73% implied probability to fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, driven by persistent delays in the program's inaugural Version 3 flight test—Flight 12—now pushed into late Q2 amid hardware integration challenges with the elongated Starship upper stage, upgraded Raptor 3 engines, and redesigned Super Heavy booster. No Starship flights have occurred in 2026 to date, following five tests in 2025 that achieved incremental successes like soft landings and payload deployment but highlighted reliability issues and FAA licensing hurdles. Recent static fire tests of Booster 19 and Ship 39 signal progress, yet historical cadence (two launches in 2023, four in 2024, five in 2025) and Starbase infrastructure constraints temper expectations for rapid scaling, with 5-6 launches at 19% reflecting cautious optimism if V3 proves reliable. Key catalysts include Flight 12's outcome and potential tower catch attempts.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volumen
$444,907Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 73% implied probability to fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, driven by persistent delays in the program's inaugural Version 3 flight test—Flight 12—now pushed into late Q2 amid hardware integration challenges with the elongated Starship upper stage, upgraded Raptor 3 engines, and redesigned Super Heavy booster. No Starship flights have occurred in 2026 to date, following five tests in 2025 that achieved incremental successes like soft landings and payload deployment but highlighted reliability issues and FAA licensing hurdles. Recent static fire tests of Booster 19 and Ship 39 signal progress, yet historical cadence (two launches in 2023, four in 2024, five in 2025) and Starbase infrastructure constraints temper expectations for rapid scaling, with 5-6 launches at 19% reflecting cautious optimism if V3 proves reliable. Key catalysts include Flight 12's outcome and potential tower catch attempts.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$444,907Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 73% implied probability to fewer than five SpaceX Starship launches reaching space in 2026, driven by persistent delays in the program's inaugural Version 3 flight test—Flight 12—now pushed into late Q2 amid hardware integration challenges with the elongated Starship upper stage, upgraded Raptor 3 engines, and redesigned Super Heavy booster. No Starship flights have occurred in 2026 to date, following five tests in 2025 that achieved incremental successes like soft landings and payload deployment but highlighted reliability issues and FAA licensing hurdles. Recent static fire tests of Booster 19 and Ship 39 signal progress, yet historical cadence (two launches in 2023, four in 2024, five in 2025) and Starbase infrastructure constraints temper expectations for rapid scaling, with 5-6 launches at 19% reflecting cautious optimism if V3 proves reliable. Key catalysts include Flight 12's outcome and potential tower catch attempts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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