Trader consensus on low Starship launch counts for 2026 stems primarily from the program's deliberate test cadence and infrastructure constraints, with only one operational pad at Starbase and ongoing FAA mishap reviews following Flight 12's May 22 V3 debut. That flight achieved liftoff and hot staging with Raptor 3 engines but ended in booster and ship anomalies, delaying Flight 13 until at least July while Booster 20 completes cryogenic testing. Limited orbital refueling demonstrations, tower catches, and regulatory approvals for higher flight rates further cap expected outcomes, favoring the market-implied <5 or 5-6 ranges over rapid scaling. Key near-term catalysts include Flight 13 results and any new pad certifications that could accelerate 2026 activity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?
¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?
<5 50%
5-6 26%
9-10 7.6%
7-8 6.8%
$469,401 Vol.
$469,401 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
50%
5-6
26%
7-8
7%
9-10
8%
11-12
1%
13-14
5%
15-16
1%
>16
3%
<5 50%
5-6 26%
9-10 7.6%
7-8 6.8%
$469,401 Vol.
$469,401 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
$93,043 Vol.
50%
5-6
$109,891 Vol.
26%
7-8
$154,520 Vol.
7%
9-10
$58,164 Vol.
8%
11-12
$6,151 Vol.
1%
13-14
$7,741 Vol.
5%
15-16
$28,574 Vol.
1%
>16
$11,320 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on low Starship launch counts for 2026 stems primarily from the program's deliberate test cadence and infrastructure constraints, with only one operational pad at Starbase and ongoing FAA mishap reviews following Flight 12's May 22 V3 debut. That flight achieved liftoff and hot staging with Raptor 3 engines but ended in booster and ship anomalies, delaying Flight 13 until at least July while Booster 20 completes cryogenic testing. Limited orbital refueling demonstrations, tower catches, and regulatory approvals for higher flight rates further cap expected outcomes, favoring the market-implied <5 or 5-6 ranges over rapid scaling. Key near-term catalysts include Flight 13 results and any new pad certifications that could accelerate 2026 activity.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volumen
$469,401Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on low Starship launch counts for 2026 stems primarily from the program's deliberate test cadence and infrastructure constraints, with only one operational pad at Starbase and ongoing FAA mishap reviews following Flight 12's May 22 V3 debut. That flight achieved liftoff and hot staging with Raptor 3 engines but ended in booster and ship anomalies, delaying Flight 13 until at least July while Booster 20 completes cryogenic testing. Limited orbital refueling demonstrations, tower catches, and regulatory approvals for higher flight rates further cap expected outcomes, favoring the market-implied <5 or 5-6 ranges over rapid scaling. Key near-term catalysts include Flight 13 results and any new pad certifications that could accelerate 2026 activity.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$469,401Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on low Starship launch counts for 2026 stems primarily from the program's deliberate test cadence and infrastructure constraints, with only one operational pad at Starbase and ongoing FAA mishap reviews following Flight 12's May 22 V3 debut. That flight achieved liftoff and hot staging with Raptor 3 engines but ended in booster and ship anomalies, delaying Flight 13 until at least July while Booster 20 completes cryogenic testing. Limited orbital refueling demonstrations, tower catches, and regulatory approvals for higher flight rates further cap expected outcomes, favoring the market-implied <5 or 5-6 ranges over rapid scaling. Key near-term catalysts include Flight 13 results and any new pad certifications that could accelerate 2026 activity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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