Israeli military reports multiple strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon amid ongoing drone and rocket threats, highlighting persistent multi-country conflict risk

5 rises to 28%4%

Israeli military reports multiple strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon amid ongoing drone and rocket threats, highlighting persistent multi-country conflict risk

Renewed Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah drone attacks on Israeli soldiers escalate conflict, with Netanyahu promising further strikes on Hezbollah

5 jumps to 21%10%

Renewed Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah drone attacks on Israeli soldiers escalate conflict, with Netanyahu promising further strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure

Continued reports of Israeli strikes and incursions remain focused on Syria and Lebanon with no credible evidence of strikes on additional countries' soil, maintaining low market

9 rises to 2%1%

Continued reports of Israeli strikes and incursions remain focused on Syria and Lebanon with no credible evidence of strikes on additional countries' soil, maintaining low market confidence in the 9-country strike outcome

Israel launches over 100 airstrikes in 10 minutes against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon

3 jumps to 27%8%

A massive Israeli air campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon demonstrated Israel’s ongoing multi-country strike capability and intent, supporting the market’s moderate rebound.

Israeli strikes on Iranian consulate in Damascus and assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, escalating tensions but no new countries struck

4 drops to 20%14%

No new countries confirmed, reducing

Israeli strikes on Iranian embassy in Damascus kill senior IRGC commanders, escalating Israel-Syria-Iran conflict

3 jumps to 19%7%

Israel targeted the Iranian consulate annex in Damascus, killing senior IRGC officers, signaling continued Israeli strikes beyond immediate neighbors and increasing strike count expectations.

Israeli airstrikes kill civilians and journalists in southern Lebanon amid ongoing strikes on Hezbollah

3 plunges to 8%30%

Heavy Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed civilians and journalists, intensifying conflict but also raising concerns about escalation limits and potential diplomatic fallout, causing market uncertainty.

Israeli military admits over 20 strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon and Beqaa Valley, targeting weapons manufacturing and rocket launch sites

5 jumps to 31%9%

Israeli military admits over 20 strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon and Beqaa Valley, targeting weapons manufacturing and rocket launch sites

Israeli strikes reported near Iran’s Natanz nuclear site, with injuries from Iranian missile strikes in Israel; Israel denies responsibility for Natanz attack

4 drops to 29%7%

Uncertainty about Israeli strikes inside Iran and denials likely caused

Israel conducts joint airstrikes with the US on Iranian nuclear and military sites, assassinating Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei

3 surges to 50%27%

Israel and the US launched a bombing campaign in Iran, including the assassination of Khamenei, significantly increasing the probability Israel would strike multiple countries including Iran.

Fact check clarifies that recent airstrike footage attributed to Iran bombing Israel was actually Israeli strikes on Damascus in 2025, indicating no new countries were struck in

9 dips to 1%1%

Fact check clarifies that recent airstrike footage attributed to Iran bombing Israel was actually Israeli strikes on Damascus in 2025, indicating no new countries were struck in early 2026, supporting market skepticism about the 9-country outcome

Israel and the United States begin joint strikes against Iran targeting nuclear and ballistic missile programs, with a conditional ceasefire declared on 8 April 2026

The 2026 strikes focus on Iran again, with no credible reports of Israel striking new countries, maintaining the low market probability.

Market surge coincides with reports of intensified Israeli strikes on Hezbollah-linked sites in Lebanon and warnings of further drone attacks amid rising tensions

5 surges to 30%23%

Market surge coincides with reports of intensified Israeli strikes on Hezbollah-linked sites in Lebanon and warnings of further drone attacks amid rising tensions

IDF conducts multiple airstrikes on Hezbollah missile sites in Baalbek, Lebanon, killing commanders and disrupting missile capabilities

4 rises to 36%2%

Renewed strikes in Lebanon confirmed ongoing conflict but no new countries.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warns of further strikes in Syria to protect Druze communities amid ongoing clashes, but no new countries reported struck;

9 dips to 2%1%

this reaffirmed Israel's focus on Syria and Lebanon, limiting the possibility of strikes in nine countries

Iran launches missile and drone barrage on Israel in retaliation for Israeli strikes on Iranian targets

3 jumps to 26%10%

Iran coordinated a large missile and drone attack on Israel from its own soil, marking a direct military confrontation and raising expectations of Israeli retaliatory strikes in Iran and allied countries.

Syria-Israel deal talks in Paris discussed amid ongoing Israeli strikes on Syrian military infrastructure including Damascus;

6 rises to 6%4%

no withdrawal of Israeli forces from occupied zones yet

Lebanon files UN complaint over repeated Israeli ceasefire violations and attacks in southern Lebanon

3 drops to 39%7%

Lebanon formally complained to the UN about daily Israeli air and ground violations since the 2024 ceasefire, highlighting ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon and affecting market confidence.

Israeli drone strike kills an IRGC operative and others in eastern Lebanon, continuing near-daily ceasefire violations against Hezbollah targets

5 jumps to 12%5%

Israeli drone strike kills an IRGC operative and others in eastern Lebanon, continuing near-daily ceasefire violations against Hezbollah targets

Israeli warplanes bomb multiple sites in southern Lebanon’s Nabatieh area, violating ceasefire and targeting Hezbollah positions, with drones hovering over the region

5 rises to 7%1%

Israeli warplanes bomb multiple sites in southern Lebanon’s Nabatieh area, violating ceasefire and targeting Hezbollah positions, with drones hovering over the region

Israeli forces establish checkpoints and launch raids in southern Syria's Quneitra area, consolidating control rather than expanding to new countries

Continued operations in Syria without new country targets supported the market's low probability for seven countries.

Israel launches fresh raids in Syria’s Quneitra, establishing checkpoints and continuing air raids despite UN buffer zone agreements;

6 rises to 5%3%

over 600 Israeli attacks on Syria recorded in past year

Israel continues heavy airstrike campaign in Syria with over 600 attacks recorded in the past year, targeting military infrastructure and strategic sites, but no new countries struck

7 dips to 1%3%

The concentration of strikes in Syria reinforced market expectations that Israel's operations remain regionally focused.

Israeli airstrikes kill 27 in Gaza and strike Hezbollah targets in Lebanon amid fragile ceasefire

3 jumps to 46%13%

Israel conducted airstrikes killing 27 in Gaza and targeted Hezbollah weapons storage in southern Lebanon, escalating tensions and increasing the likelihood of strikes in multiple countries.

Reports highlight fears in southern Syria over Israel's growing occupation and frequent raids, including the November Beit Jinn incursion;

6 drops to 2%5%

Israeli forces have seized buffer zones and established military bases in southern Syria

Reports confirm Israel attacked Syria more than 600 times over the past year, focusing on military sites across Damascus, Quneitra, and Deraa

8 dips to 1%2%

The overwhelming concentration of strikes in Syria and a few other countries in 2025 reduced the likelihood of Israel striking eight different countries in 2026.

Reports confirm Israel conducted over 600 air, drone, or artillery attacks in Syria over the past year, focusing on military targets in southern Syria and Damascus, reinforcing

9 drops to 0%5%

Reports confirm Israel conducted over 600 air, drone, or artillery attacks in Syria over the past year, focusing on military targets in southern Syria and Damascus, reinforcing that Israel's strikes remain concentrated in Syria rather than expanding to many countries

Israeli raid in Beit Jinn, Syria kills at least 13 people including two children, marking one of the deadliest Israeli strikes in southern Syria in months;

9 plunges to 4%42%

the raid involved Israeli ground forces and subsequent airstrikes to extract troops, intensifying conflict in Syria but limited to one country

Israeli airstrike on Iranian consulate in Damascus kills 16 including IRGC officers, a significant strike on Iranian assets in Syria but not on Iranian soil

7 rises to 3%1%

This attack showed Israel's targeting of Iranian influence but did not increase the count of countries struck.

Israeli forces conduct incursion and missile strikes in Beit Jinn, Syria, killing 13 including two children, amid ongoing Israeli operations in southern Syria

8 dips to 3%2%

This deadly strike reinforced Israel's ongoing operations in Syria but did not add new countries to the tally.

Israeli forces raid Syrian village Beit Jinn, killing at least 13 including two children after locals resisted incursion;

6 plunges to 8%39%

Israeli troops returned fire with air support after being attacked, wounding six soldiers; Syria condemned the attack as a "war crime"

Israeli raid in Beit Jinn, Syria kills at least 13 people including two children after locals resisted the incursion; Israeli forces targeted members of the Lebanese Islamist militant group Jama’a Islamiya, marking one of the deadliest Israeli strikes in Syria in months

7 plunges to 4%40%

This event highlighted Israel's continued military focus on Syria rather than expanding to many new countries.

Israeli military units storm southern Syria's Quneitra countryside with tanks and armored vehicles, raising Israeli flag at Tal al-Ahmar before pulling back;

6 dips to 7%1%

intensifies Israeli presence and incursions in southern Syria

Israeli air force strikes a camp in eastern Syria housing Iranian proxy groups from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, killing dozens

4 rises to 30%3%

This reinforced Syria as a strike location but did not add new countries.

Israeli military carries out airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure after evacuation warnings, wounding civilians including students on a bus

5 jumps to 12%6%

Israeli military carries out airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure after evacuation warnings, wounding civilians including students on a bus

Israeli airstrike on Palestinian refugee camp in southern Lebanon kills 13 people, the deadliest strike since the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, signaling ongoing conflict escalation

5 plunges to 9%38%

Israeli airstrike on Palestinian refugee camp in southern Lebanon kills 13 people, the deadliest strike since the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, signaling ongoing conflict escalation

Analysis of Israel's historical strikes on nuclear facilities in Iraq, Syria, and Iran shows Israel's strategic targeting of key threats rather than broad multi-country campaigns

7 dips to 2%2%

This context suggested Israel's strikes are precise and limited in scope, reducing likelihood of hitting seven countries in 2026.

Israeli military arrests settlers attempting to enter Gaza amid ongoing strikes in Gaza and southern Lebanon

3 plunges to 19%28%

Israeli forces arrested settlers trying to enter Gaza to establish settlements, while continuing airstrikes in Gaza and southern Lebanon targeting Hamas and Hezbollah infrastructure, signaling ongoing multi-front conflict.

Israeli airstrike kills Houthi Prime Minister Ahmed al-Rahawi and other officials in Sanaa, Yemen, confirming Israel's reach beyond immediate neighbors but still limited to a few countries

7 rises to 4%2%

This strike in Yemen was a notable expansion but still far from seven countries, tempering market optimism.

Israeli drone strikes kill eight soldiers in Al-Kiswah, Syria, reinforcing the pattern of strikes focused on Syria and nearby countries

7 dips to 2%1%

Continued strikes in Syria without new countries confirmed limited geographic scope.

Israeli Navy carries out airstrikes on Hezyaz power plant near Sanaa, Yemen, killing multiple Houthi leaders

4 jumps to 27%9%

This strike on Yemen's soil added a potential fourth country, temporarily boosting the market

Israel conducts airstrikes on Syrian government buildings in Damascus, including military headquarters and presidential palace vicinity, killing at least 3 and injuring 34

8 dips to 5%2%

Continued heavy strikes in Syria confirmed Israel's focus on Syrian territory but did not expand the count of countries struck.

Israeli airstrikes hit Syrian government buildings in Damascus, including the military headquarters and presidential palace, escalating the southern Syria conflict amid Druze clashes

7 rises to 2%1%

This escalation in Syria showed Israel's intent to maintain pressure there, not to open new fronts in other countries.

Israel launches Operation Rising Lion, conducting airstrikes on more than a dozen locations across Iran targeting nuclear and military sites, marking a major escalation in Israeli strikes outside its borders

8 plunges to 7%43%

This large-scale operation against Iran in mid-2025 initially supported high market probability for multiple countries being struck, including Iran.

Israel and Lebanon sign a 60-day truce with UNIFIL peacekeepers, limiting further Israeli strikes in Lebanon

4 dips to 10%1%

The truce reduced expectations of multiple new strikes in Lebanon, lowering the probability of four countries being struck.

Israeli airstrikes kill nine in Lebanese villages Maaysrah and Barja, and strike Nabatieh's commercial area, escalating conflict in Lebanon

4 plunges to 11%37%

This major Lebanon strike likely reduced confidence in exactly four countries being struck, as it confirmed Lebanon as one target but uncertainty about others remained.