Trader consensus has locked in 23°C at 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on May 9, driven by official observations from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport weather station—the market's resolution source—peaking at 23°C midday amid persistent overcast skies, limited solar insolation, and a moderating marine layer from the East China Sea. This aligns precisely with short-range forecast consensus from China Meteorological Administration models, GFS, and ECMWF ensembles projecting subdued highs following a cool morning start near 18°C, consistent with early-May climatological averages of 23°C at the coastal site. Afternoon temperatures have since cooled toward 22°C under continued cloud cover, minimizing upside risk; a challenge would require improbable late-day clearing and prolonged sunshine to push beyond 23°C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 9?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 9?
23°C 100.0%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$193,033 Vol.
$193,033 Vol.
May 9, 2026
23°C
100%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 100.0%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$193,033 Vol.
$193,033 Vol.
May 9, 2026
23°C
$26,580 Vol.
100%
24°C
$21,067 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$30,948 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$13,851 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$11,640 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$12,779 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in 23°C at 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on May 9, driven by official observations from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport weather station—the market's resolution source—peaking at 23°C midday amid persistent overcast skies, limited solar insolation, and a moderating marine layer from the East China Sea. This aligns precisely with short-range forecast consensus from China Meteorological Administration models, GFS, and ECMWF ensembles projecting subdued highs following a cool morning start near 18°C, consistent with early-May climatological averages of 23°C at the coastal site. Afternoon temperatures have since cooled toward 22°C under continued cloud cover, minimizing upside risk; a challenge would require improbable late-day clearing and prolonged sunshine to push beyond 23°C before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 7, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volume
$193,033End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
Dispute window
Final
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in 23°C at 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on May 9, driven by official observations from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport weather station—the market's resolution source—peaking at 23°C midday amid persistent overcast skies, limited solar insolation, and a moderating marine layer from the East China Sea. This aligns precisely with short-range forecast consensus from China Meteorological Administration models, GFS, and ECMWF ensembles projecting subdued highs following a cool morning start near 18°C, consistent with early-May climatological averages of 23°C at the coastal site. Afternoon temperatures have since cooled toward 22°C under continued cloud cover, minimizing upside risk; a challenge would require improbable late-day clearing and prolonged sunshine to push beyond 23°C before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$193,033End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:09 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
Dispute window
Final
Trader consensus has locked in 23°C at 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on May 9, driven by official observations from the Shanghai Pudong International Airport weather station—the market's resolution source—peaking at 23°C midday amid persistent overcast skies, limited solar insolation, and a moderating marine layer from the East China Sea. This aligns precisely with short-range forecast consensus from China Meteorological Administration models, GFS, and ECMWF ensembles projecting subdued highs following a cool morning start near 18°C, consistent with early-May climatological averages of 23°C at the coastal site. Afternoon temperatures have since cooled toward 22°C under continued cloud cover, minimizing upside risk; a challenge would require improbable late-day clearing and prolonged sunshine to push beyond 23°C before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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