Ensemble forecasts from leading numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS, alongside ARPA Lombardia guidance, show strong agreement for a maximum temperature of 24°C at Milano Malpensa International Airport station today, driving the market's 99.6% implied probability on this outcome. Morning METAR observations confirm alignment, with midday readings hitting 23°C under partly cloudy skies, low humidity around 40%, and light northeasterly winds limiting further heating. This positioning reflects typical May climatology for the Po Valley, where highs average 22–24°C amid stable high-pressure influence. Realistic challenges include prolonged afternoon sunshine pushing to 25°C or isolated showers capping below 24°C, though model consensus and current trends favor the former; hourly station data through evening will finalize resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on May 9?
Highest temperature in Milan on May 9?
24°C 99.8%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$96,948 Vol.
$96,948 Vol.
24°C
100%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
24°C 99.8%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$96,948 Vol.
$96,948 Vol.
24°C
100%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 7, 2026, 12:40 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from leading numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS, alongside ARPA Lombardia guidance, show strong agreement for a maximum temperature of 24°C at Milano Malpensa International Airport station today, driving the market's 99.6% implied probability on this outcome. Morning METAR observations confirm alignment, with midday readings hitting 23°C under partly cloudy skies, low humidity around 40%, and light northeasterly winds limiting further heating. This positioning reflects typical May climatology for the Po Valley, where highs average 22–24°C amid stable high-pressure influence. Realistic challenges include prolonged afternoon sunshine pushing to 25°C or isolated showers capping below 24°C, though model consensus and current trends favor the former; hourly station data through evening will finalize resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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