Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in short-term solar behavior, with all outcome prices clustered evenly at 41% implied probability for 0 through 6+ major space weather events from May 10-16, as NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasts low solar activity ahead. Recent developments include a strong solar storm on May 7 producing auroras via a coronal mass ejection, followed by G2 warnings on May 4, but conditions have quieted with no active R3+, S3+, or G3+ events and solar wind at 497 km/s under minimal magnetic influence. Few complex active regions persist amid declining Solar Cycle 25 activity, limiting flare and CME potential, though 45% odds for minor R1-R2 radio blackouts and 10% for R3+ underscore unpredictability. Daily SWPC 3-day forecasts and GOES satellite observations will be pivotal, as unexpected X-class flares or Earth-directed ejections could spike counts rapidly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many major Space Weather events this week? (May 10 - May 16)
How many major Space Weather events this week? (May 10 - May 16)
0 27%
1 25%
2 24%
4 24%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
0
27%
1
25%
2
24%
3
25%
4
24%
5
22%
6+
23%
0 27%
1 25%
2 24%
4 24%
NEW
NEW
May 16, 2026
0
$0 Vol.
27%
1
$0 Vol.
25%
2
$0 Vol.
24%
3
$40 Vol.
25%
4
$0 Vol.
24%
5
$0 Vol.
22%
6+
$0 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 10, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 16, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in short-term solar behavior, with all outcome prices clustered evenly at 41% implied probability for 0 through 6+ major space weather events from May 10-16, as NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasts low solar activity ahead. Recent developments include a strong solar storm on May 7 producing auroras via a coronal mass ejection, followed by G2 warnings on May 4, but conditions have quieted with no active R3+, S3+, or G3+ events and solar wind at 497 km/s under minimal magnetic influence. Few complex active regions persist amid declining Solar Cycle 25 activity, limiting flare and CME potential, though 45% odds for minor R1-R2 radio blackouts and 10% for R3+ underscore unpredictability. Daily SWPC 3-day forecasts and GOES satellite observations will be pivotal, as unexpected X-class flares or Earth-directed ejections could spike counts rapidly.
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 10, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 16, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: May 9, 2026, 10:49 AM ET
Volume
$40End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 10:49 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 10, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 16, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in short-term solar behavior, with all outcome prices clustered evenly at 41% implied probability for 0 through 6+ major space weather events from May 10-16, as NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasts low solar activity ahead. Recent developments include a strong solar storm on May 7 producing auroras via a coronal mass ejection, followed by G2 warnings on May 4, but conditions have quieted with no active R3+, S3+, or G3+ events and solar wind at 497 km/s under minimal magnetic influence. Few complex active regions persist amid declining Solar Cycle 25 activity, limiting flare and CME potential, though 45% odds for minor R1-R2 radio blackouts and 10% for R3+ underscore unpredictability. Daily SWPC 3-day forecasts and GOES satellite observations will be pivotal, as unexpected X-class flares or Earth-directed ejections could spike counts rapidly.
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 10, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 16, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$40End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 10:49 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects profound uncertainty in short-term solar behavior, with all outcome prices clustered evenly at 41% implied probability for 0 through 6+ major space weather events from May 10-16, as NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasts low solar activity ahead. Recent developments include a strong solar storm on May 7 producing auroras via a coronal mass ejection, followed by G2 warnings on May 4, but conditions have quieted with no active R3+, S3+, or G3+ events and solar wind at 497 km/s under minimal magnetic influence. Few complex active regions persist amid declining Solar Cycle 25 activity, limiting flare and CME potential, though 45% odds for minor R1-R2 radio blackouts and 10% for R3+ underscore unpredictability. Daily SWPC 3-day forecasts and GOES satellite observations will be pivotal, as unexpected X-class flares or Earth-directed ejections could spike counts rapidly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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