Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature reaching exactly 24°C on May 9, driven by observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and aligned international models like ECMWF and GFS, which recorded a daytime peak around 24°C (76°F) in the afternoon amid partly cloudy conditions with light winds. Current late-evening readings near 20°C (68°F) confirm no further warming as solar heating diminishes, consistent with typical May climatology where highs average 21°C but vary with high-pressure influence. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or upward revision in official station data, with final resolution pending MGM's daily maximum report.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 9?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 9?
24°C 100.0%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C or higher <1%
$89,551 Vol.
$89,551 Vol.
May 9, 2026
24°C
100%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
24°C 100.0%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C or higher <1%
$89,551 Vol.
$89,551 Vol.
May 9, 2026
24°C
$11,838 Vol.
100%
25°C
$10,183 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$9,244 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$7,401 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature reaching exactly 24°C on May 9, driven by observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and aligned international models like ECMWF and GFS, which recorded a daytime peak around 24°C (76°F) in the afternoon amid partly cloudy conditions with light winds. Current late-evening readings near 20°C (68°F) confirm no further warming as solar heating diminishes, consistent with typical May climatology where highs average 21°C but vary with high-pressure influence. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or upward revision in official station data, with final resolution pending MGM's daily maximum report.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 7, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$89,551End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature reaching exactly 24°C on May 9, driven by observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and aligned international models like ECMWF and GFS, which recorded a daytime peak around 24°C (76°F) in the afternoon amid partly cloudy conditions with light winds. Current late-evening readings near 20°C (68°F) confirm no further warming as solar heating diminishes, consistent with typical May climatology where highs average 21°C but vary with high-pressure influence. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or upward revision in official station data, with final resolution pending MGM's daily maximum report.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$89,551End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Istanbul's highest temperature reaching exactly 24°C on May 9, driven by observational data from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and aligned international models like ECMWF and GFS, which recorded a daytime peak around 24°C (76°F) in the afternoon amid partly cloudy conditions with light winds. Current late-evening readings near 20°C (68°F) confirm no further warming as solar heating diminishes, consistent with typical May climatology where highs average 21°C but vary with high-pressure influence. Realistic challenges would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst from clearing skies or upward revision in official station data, with final resolution pending MGM's daily maximum report.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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