Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 26°C (99.7% implied probability) for Hong Kong's highest temperature on May 9, 2026, backed by Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) observational data and short-range forecasts showing a daily maximum of 23–27°C under a moderating easterly airstream. Following May 8's 30.3°C peak amid subsiding heat, today's mainly cloudy conditions with occasional light showers and moderate east winds (force 3–4) have suppressed daytime insolation, with evening readings at the Observatory hovering around 24°C by 20:00 HKT—confirming no exceedance beyond 26°C earlier. This aligns with multi-model consensus for subdued heating in the region. Rare challenges could arise from unexpected late-afternoon cloud clearance enabling brief solar rebound, though post-sunset low solar angles render this improbable; final HKO records will resolve by day's end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 9?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 9?
26°C 99.7%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
17°C or below <1%
$562,650 Vol.
$562,650 Vol.
May 9, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
100%
27°C or higher
<1%
26°C 99.7%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
17°C or below <1%
$562,650 Vol.
$562,650 Vol.
May 9, 2026
17°C or below
$11,326 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$3,612 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,658 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$11,866 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$7,577 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$19,837 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$64,405 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$134,640 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$186,320 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$65,745 Vol.
100%
27°C or higher
$55,663 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 26°C (99.7% implied probability) for Hong Kong's highest temperature on May 9, 2026, backed by Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) observational data and short-range forecasts showing a daily maximum of 23–27°C under a moderating easterly airstream. Following May 8's 30.3°C peak amid subsiding heat, today's mainly cloudy conditions with occasional light showers and moderate east winds (force 3–4) have suppressed daytime insolation, with evening readings at the Observatory hovering around 24°C by 20:00 HKT—confirming no exceedance beyond 26°C earlier. This aligns with multi-model consensus for subdued heating in the region. Rare challenges could arise from unexpected late-afternoon cloud clearance enabling brief solar rebound, though post-sunset low solar angles render this improbable; final HKO records will resolve by day's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 7, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Volume
$562,650End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 26°C (99.7% implied probability) for Hong Kong's highest temperature on May 9, 2026, backed by Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) observational data and short-range forecasts showing a daily maximum of 23–27°C under a moderating easterly airstream. Following May 8's 30.3°C peak amid subsiding heat, today's mainly cloudy conditions with occasional light showers and moderate east winds (force 3–4) have suppressed daytime insolation, with evening readings at the Observatory hovering around 24°C by 20:00 HKT—confirming no exceedance beyond 26°C earlier. This aligns with multi-model consensus for subdued heating in the region. Rare challenges could arise from unexpected late-afternoon cloud clearance enabling brief solar rebound, though post-sunset low solar angles render this improbable; final HKO records will resolve by day's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$562,650End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 26°C (99.7% implied probability) for Hong Kong's highest temperature on May 9, 2026, backed by Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) observational data and short-range forecasts showing a daily maximum of 23–27°C under a moderating easterly airstream. Following May 8's 30.3°C peak amid subsiding heat, today's mainly cloudy conditions with occasional light showers and moderate east winds (force 3–4) have suppressed daytime insolation, with evening readings at the Observatory hovering around 24°C by 20:00 HKT—confirming no exceedance beyond 26°C earlier. This aligns with multi-model consensus for subdued heating in the region. Rare challenges could arise from unexpected late-afternoon cloud clearance enabling brief solar rebound, though post-sunset low solar angles render this improbable; final HKO records will resolve by day's end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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