Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 24°C on May 10, closely followed by 23°C at 30.5%, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles converging tightly around 23–25°C amid persistent southerly flows delivering mild, humid air masses. The China Meteorological Administration forecasts a cloudy high of 26°C, while timeanddate.com aligns nearer 26°C (78°F), but traders discount upside potential due to overcast conditions capping solar heating and recent volatility—Shanghai hit 24°C on May 4 and 27°C on May 5 before stabilizing. May climatology averages 24–25°C highs, with urban measurement at official stations like Xujiahui as the resolution criterion. Overnight model updates by May 9 evening could refine probabilities ahead of tomorrow's observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 10?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 10?
24°C 40%
23°C 22%
25°C 22%
22°C 8%
NEW
$34,857 Vol.
NEW
$34,857 Vol.
May 10, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
8%
23°C
22%
24°C
40%
25°C
22%
26°C
5%
27°C
2%
28°C or higher
<1%
24°C 40%
23°C 22%
25°C 22%
22°C 8%
NEW
$34,857 Vol.
NEW
$34,857 Vol.
May 10, 2026
18°C or below
$4,155 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$3,375 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$3,083 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$5,945 Vol.
1%
22°C
$4,282 Vol.
8%
23°C
$3,237 Vol.
22%
24°C
$2,066 Vol.
40%
25°C
$2,528 Vol.
22%
26°C
$1,756 Vol.
5%
27°C
$2,048 Vol.
2%
28°C or higher
$2,387 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 24°C on May 10, closely followed by 23°C at 30.5%, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles converging tightly around 23–25°C amid persistent southerly flows delivering mild, humid air masses. The China Meteorological Administration forecasts a cloudy high of 26°C, while timeanddate.com aligns nearer 26°C (78°F), but traders discount upside potential due to overcast conditions capping solar heating and recent volatility—Shanghai hit 24°C on May 4 and 27°C on May 5 before stabilizing. May climatology averages 24–25°C highs, with urban measurement at official stations like Xujiahui as the resolution criterion. Overnight model updates by May 9 evening could refine probabilities ahead of tomorrow's observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$34,857End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 24°C on May 10, closely followed by 23°C at 30.5%, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles converging tightly around 23–25°C amid persistent southerly flows delivering mild, humid air masses. The China Meteorological Administration forecasts a cloudy high of 26°C, while timeanddate.com aligns nearer 26°C (78°F), but traders discount upside potential due to overcast conditions capping solar heating and recent volatility—Shanghai hit 24°C on May 4 and 27°C on May 5 before stabilizing. May climatology averages 24–25°C highs, with urban measurement at official stations like Xujiahui as the resolution criterion. Overnight model updates by May 9 evening could refine probabilities ahead of tomorrow's observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$34,857End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature reaching exactly 24°C on May 10, closely followed by 23°C at 30.5%, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles converging tightly around 23–25°C amid persistent southerly flows delivering mild, humid air masses. The China Meteorological Administration forecasts a cloudy high of 26°C, while timeanddate.com aligns nearer 26°C (78°F), but traders discount upside potential due to overcast conditions capping solar heating and recent volatility—Shanghai hit 24°C on May 4 and 27°C on May 5 before stabilizing. May climatology averages 24–25°C highs, with urban measurement at official stations like Xujiahui as the resolution criterion. Overnight model updates by May 9 evening could refine probabilities ahead of tomorrow's observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions