Trader consensus on Polymarket, backed by real capital, prices Munich's May 11 high temperature around 17-19°C, with 38.5% implied probability for 19°C or higher reflecting the latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF ensemble means favoring mild advection under a developing upper-level ridge over Central Europe. The tight clustering of 16°C (29%), 17°C (29%), and 18°C (28.5%) probabilities arises from model spread in low-level cloudiness and the timing of a weak cold front, which could suppress daytime heating via reduced insolation or enhance it through clearer skies. Mid-May climatology averages 18°C highs, consistent with guidance; expect volatility from May 10's 12Z forecast updates as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on May 11?
Highest temperature in Munich on May 11?
17°C 34%
16°C 33%
18°C 16%
19°C or higher 12.9%
NEW
NEW
May 11, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
7%
15°C
4%
16°C
33%
17°C
34%
18°C
16%
19°C or higher
13%
17°C 34%
16°C 33%
18°C 16%
19°C or higher 12.9%
NEW
NEW
May 11, 2026
9°C or below
$244 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$181 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$64 Vol.
1%
13°C
$893 Vol.
2%
14°C
$1,230 Vol.
7%
15°C
$662 Vol.
4%
16°C
$538 Vol.
33%
17°C
$391 Vol.
34%
18°C
$486 Vol.
16%
19°C or higher
$1,493 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket, backed by real capital, prices Munich's May 11 high temperature around 17-19°C, with 38.5% implied probability for 19°C or higher reflecting the latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF ensemble means favoring mild advection under a developing upper-level ridge over Central Europe. The tight clustering of 16°C (29%), 17°C (29%), and 18°C (28.5%) probabilities arises from model spread in low-level cloudiness and the timing of a weak cold front, which could suppress daytime heating via reduced insolation or enhance it through clearer skies. Mid-May climatology averages 18°C highs, consistent with guidance; expect volatility from May 10's 12Z forecast updates as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 9, 2026, 1:32 AM ET
Volume
$6,245End Date
May 11, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 1:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket, backed by real capital, prices Munich's May 11 high temperature around 17-19°C, with 38.5% implied probability for 19°C or higher reflecting the latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF ensemble means favoring mild advection under a developing upper-level ridge over Central Europe. The tight clustering of 16°C (29%), 17°C (29%), and 18°C (28.5%) probabilities arises from model spread in low-level cloudiness and the timing of a weak cold front, which could suppress daytime heating via reduced insolation or enhance it through clearer skies. Mid-May climatology averages 18°C highs, consistent with guidance; expect volatility from May 10's 12Z forecast updates as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,245End Date
May 11, 2026Market Opened
May 9, 2026, 1:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket, backed by real capital, prices Munich's May 11 high temperature around 17-19°C, with 38.5% implied probability for 19°C or higher reflecting the latest Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF ensemble means favoring mild advection under a developing upper-level ridge over Central Europe. The tight clustering of 16°C (29%), 17°C (29%), and 18°C (28.5%) probabilities arises from model spread in low-level cloudiness and the timing of a weak cold front, which could suppress daytime heating via reduced insolation or enhance it through clearer skies. Mid-May climatology averages 18°C highs, consistent with guidance; expect volatility from May 10's 12Z forecast updates as resolution nears.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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