Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 12°C in Moscow today (98% implied probability), driven by the latest Roshydromet forecasts projecting daytime highs of 12–14°C under persistent cloud cover and breezy northerly winds that suppress solar heating and warm-air advection. Real-time observations from official stations and international monitors like AccuWeather confirm midday readings near 12°C (54°F), aligning with model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing limited intensification potential amid overcast conditions. This positioning reflects a cooler-than-average May day, bucking the typical 18°C historical high. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for a brief 1–2°C spike, though low-level instability and evening cooldown make higher outcomes improbable; final VVC station data will resolve by midnight local time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on May 9?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 9?
12°C 98.8%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$62,836 Vol.
$62,836 Vol.
May 9, 2026
12°C
99%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
12°C 98.8%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$62,836 Vol.
$62,836 Vol.
May 9, 2026
12°C
$6,245 Vol.
99%
13°C
$5,119 Vol.
1%
14°C
$5,921 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$6,146 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$8,077 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$12,771 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 12°C in Moscow today (98% implied probability), driven by the latest Roshydromet forecasts projecting daytime highs of 12–14°C under persistent cloud cover and breezy northerly winds that suppress solar heating and warm-air advection. Real-time observations from official stations and international monitors like AccuWeather confirm midday readings near 12°C (54°F), aligning with model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing limited intensification potential amid overcast conditions. This positioning reflects a cooler-than-average May day, bucking the typical 18°C historical high. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for a brief 1–2°C spike, though low-level instability and evening cooldown make higher outcomes improbable; final VVC station data will resolve by midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 7, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$62,836End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 12°C in Moscow today (98% implied probability), driven by the latest Roshydromet forecasts projecting daytime highs of 12–14°C under persistent cloud cover and breezy northerly winds that suppress solar heating and warm-air advection. Real-time observations from official stations and international monitors like AccuWeather confirm midday readings near 12°C (54°F), aligning with model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing limited intensification potential amid overcast conditions. This positioning reflects a cooler-than-average May day, bucking the typical 18°C historical high. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for a brief 1–2°C spike, though low-level instability and evening cooldown make higher outcomes improbable; final VVC station data will resolve by midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$62,836End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 12°C in Moscow today (98% implied probability), driven by the latest Roshydromet forecasts projecting daytime highs of 12–14°C under persistent cloud cover and breezy northerly winds that suppress solar heating and warm-air advection. Real-time observations from official stations and international monitors like AccuWeather confirm midday readings near 12°C (54°F), aligning with model consensus from ECMWF and GFS runs showing limited intensification potential amid overcast conditions. This positioning reflects a cooler-than-average May day, bucking the typical 18°C historical high. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing for a brief 1–2°C spike, though low-level instability and evening cooldown make higher outcomes improbable; final VVC station data will resolve by midnight local time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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