Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest forecast model ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia's Hydrometeorological Center, which converge on a high near 14°C for Moscow on May 10, amid an approaching low-pressure system bringing widespread cloud cover and evening heavy rain showers. Recent observational data shows a warm spell with highs of 18–25°C over the past 48 hours under high-pressure influence, but steering patterns now favor cooler air advection, capping daytime heating. Historical early-May averages hover around 15°C, with model spread of 1–3°C introducing uncertainty—key differentiators include precise precipitation timing and cloud opacity, which could suppress highs to 13°C or allow brief clearing to 16°C. Updated runs expected within 12 hours may refine probabilities ahead of resolution based on official VDNKh station measurements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on May 10?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 10?
13°C 36%
12°C 27%
14°C 22%
11°C 10.6%
NEW
$15,085 Vol.
NEW
$15,085 Vol.
May 10, 2026
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
11%
12°C
27%
13°C
36%
14°C
22%
15°C
6%
16°C
2%
17°C or higher
1%
13°C 36%
12°C 27%
14°C 22%
11°C 10.6%
NEW
$15,085 Vol.
NEW
$15,085 Vol.
May 10, 2026
7°C or below
$3,393 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$571 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$1,566 Vol.
1%
10°C
$1,265 Vol.
1%
11°C
$1,182 Vol.
11%
12°C
$1,015 Vol.
27%
13°C
$514 Vol.
36%
14°C
$678 Vol.
22%
15°C
$860 Vol.
6%
16°C
$2,196 Vol.
2%
17°C or higher
$2,084 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest forecast model ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia's Hydrometeorological Center, which converge on a high near 14°C for Moscow on May 10, amid an approaching low-pressure system bringing widespread cloud cover and evening heavy rain showers. Recent observational data shows a warm spell with highs of 18–25°C over the past 48 hours under high-pressure influence, but steering patterns now favor cooler air advection, capping daytime heating. Historical early-May averages hover around 15°C, with model spread of 1–3°C introducing uncertainty—key differentiators include precise precipitation timing and cloud opacity, which could suppress highs to 13°C or allow brief clearing to 16°C. Updated runs expected within 12 hours may refine probabilities ahead of resolution based on official VDNKh station measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Volume
$15,085End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest forecast model ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia's Hydrometeorological Center, which converge on a high near 14°C for Moscow on May 10, amid an approaching low-pressure system bringing widespread cloud cover and evening heavy rain showers. Recent observational data shows a warm spell with highs of 18–25°C over the past 48 hours under high-pressure influence, but steering patterns now favor cooler air advection, capping daytime heating. Historical early-May averages hover around 15°C, with model spread of 1–3°C introducing uncertainty—key differentiators include precise precipitation timing and cloud opacity, which could suppress highs to 13°C or allow brief clearing to 16°C. Updated runs expected within 12 hours may refine probabilities ahead of resolution based on official VDNKh station measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$15,085End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the latest forecast model ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and Russia's Hydrometeorological Center, which converge on a high near 14°C for Moscow on May 10, amid an approaching low-pressure system bringing widespread cloud cover and evening heavy rain showers. Recent observational data shows a warm spell with highs of 18–25°C over the past 48 hours under high-pressure influence, but steering patterns now favor cooler air advection, capping daytime heating. Historical early-May averages hover around 15°C, with model spread of 1–3°C introducing uncertainty—key differentiators include precise precipitation timing and cloud opacity, which could suppress highs to 13°C or allow brief clearing to 16°C. Updated runs expected within 12 hours may refine probabilities ahead of resolution based on official VDNKh station measurements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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