Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observations from central Tokyo stations recorded a peak temperature of 23°C during mid-afternoon on May 9, precisely matching the agency's latest forecast model consensus and the climatological daily maximum of 23.1°C for early May. This positioning follows warmer 25°C highs on May 7 under high-pressure influence, but a passing low-pressure system introduced partly cloudy skies, moderate northwest winds, and suppressed convective heating today, as confirmed by real-time hourly data. Trader consensus, backed by over $100K in volume, reflects skin-in-the-game confidence in this outcome amid evening cooldown. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud dissipation enabling a late spike to 24°C, though low solar angle and stable atmospheric conditions render this unlikely; final JMA daily summary expected tomorrow will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 9?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 9?
23°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$102,615 Vol.
$102,615 Vol.
May 9, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$102,615 Vol.
$102,615 Vol.
May 9, 2026
16°C or below
$968 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,163 Vol.
No
18°C
$2,259 Vol.
No
19°C
$2,048 Vol.
No
20°C
$3,149 Vol.
No
21°C
$8,779 Vol.
No
22°C
$28,860 Vol.
No
23°C
$17,704 Vol.
Yes
24°C
$14,289 Vol.
No
25°C
$12,771 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$10,625 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observations from central Tokyo stations recorded a peak temperature of 23°C during mid-afternoon on May 9, precisely matching the agency's latest forecast model consensus and the climatological daily maximum of 23.1°C for early May. This positioning follows warmer 25°C highs on May 7 under high-pressure influence, but a passing low-pressure system introduced partly cloudy skies, moderate northwest winds, and suppressed convective heating today, as confirmed by real-time hourly data. Trader consensus, backed by over $100K in volume, reflects skin-in-the-game confidence in this outcome amid evening cooldown. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud dissipation enabling a late spike to 24°C, though low solar angle and stable atmospheric conditions render this unlikely; final JMA daily summary expected tomorrow will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 7, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$102,615End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observations from central Tokyo stations recorded a peak temperature of 23°C during mid-afternoon on May 9, precisely matching the agency's latest forecast model consensus and the climatological daily maximum of 23.1°C for early May. This positioning follows warmer 25°C highs on May 7 under high-pressure influence, but a passing low-pressure system introduced partly cloudy skies, moderate northwest winds, and suppressed convective heating today, as confirmed by real-time hourly data. Trader consensus, backed by over $100K in volume, reflects skin-in-the-game confidence in this outcome amid evening cooldown. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud dissipation enabling a late spike to 24°C, though low solar angle and stable atmospheric conditions render this unlikely; final JMA daily summary expected tomorrow will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$102,615End Date
May 9, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observations from central Tokyo stations recorded a peak temperature of 23°C during mid-afternoon on May 9, precisely matching the agency's latest forecast model consensus and the climatological daily maximum of 23.1°C for early May. This positioning follows warmer 25°C highs on May 7 under high-pressure influence, but a passing low-pressure system introduced partly cloudy skies, moderate northwest winds, and suppressed convective heating today, as confirmed by real-time hourly data. Trader consensus, backed by over $100K in volume, reflects skin-in-the-game confidence in this outcome amid evening cooldown. Realistic challenges include unexpected cloud dissipation enabling a late spike to 24°C, though low solar angle and stable atmospheric conditions render this unlikely; final JMA daily summary expected tomorrow will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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