Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 16–18°C (implied probabilities 20.5–21.5%) for Milan's highest temperature on May 10, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing daytime highs in the mid-teens Celsius amid an incoming Atlantic weather front. This system introduces persistent cloud cover, light drizzle, and cooler northerly winds, suppressing solar heating and capping peaks below seasonal norms of ~22°C. Model spreads of ±1–2°C stem from uncertainties in precipitation timing and boundary layer mixing, differentiating outcomes: earlier clearing favors 18–19°C, while prolonged overcast supports 16–17°C. Recent 00Z runs slightly lowered guidance from warmer weekend trends. Upcoming 12Z ECMWF updates will clarify exact thermal profiles before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on May 10?
Highest temperature in Milan on May 10?
17°C 45%
16°C 25%
18°C 19%
19°C 5%
NEW
$15,492 Vol.
NEW
$15,492 Vol.
May 10, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
25%
17°C
45%
18°C
19%
19°C
5%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
1%
17°C 45%
16°C 25%
18°C 19%
19°C 5%
NEW
$15,492 Vol.
NEW
$15,492 Vol.
May 10, 2026
12°C or below
$407 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$513 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$683 Vol.
1%
15°C
$1,701 Vol.
3%
16°C
$1,710 Vol.
25%
17°C
$1,107 Vol.
45%
18°C
$2,367 Vol.
19%
19°C
$1,959 Vol.
5%
20°C
$1,761 Vol.
1%
21°C
$1,703 Vol.
1%
22°C or higher
$1,599 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 16–18°C (implied probabilities 20.5–21.5%) for Milan's highest temperature on May 10, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing daytime highs in the mid-teens Celsius amid an incoming Atlantic weather front. This system introduces persistent cloud cover, light drizzle, and cooler northerly winds, suppressing solar heating and capping peaks below seasonal norms of ~22°C. Model spreads of ±1–2°C stem from uncertainties in precipitation timing and boundary layer mixing, differentiating outcomes: earlier clearing favors 18–19°C, while prolonged overcast supports 16–17°C. Recent 00Z runs slightly lowered guidance from warmer weekend trends. Upcoming 12Z ECMWF updates will clarify exact thermal profiles before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:24 AM ET
Volume
$15,492End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:24 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 16–18°C (implied probabilities 20.5–21.5%) for Milan's highest temperature on May 10, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing daytime highs in the mid-teens Celsius amid an incoming Atlantic weather front. This system introduces persistent cloud cover, light drizzle, and cooler northerly winds, suppressing solar heating and capping peaks below seasonal norms of ~22°C. Model spreads of ±1–2°C stem from uncertainties in precipitation timing and boundary layer mixing, differentiating outcomes: earlier clearing favors 18–19°C, while prolonged overcast supports 16–17°C. Recent 00Z runs slightly lowered guidance from warmer weekend trends. Upcoming 12Z ECMWF updates will clarify exact thermal profiles before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$15,492End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:24 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 16–18°C (implied probabilities 20.5–21.5%) for Milan's highest temperature on May 10, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing daytime highs in the mid-teens Celsius amid an incoming Atlantic weather front. This system introduces persistent cloud cover, light drizzle, and cooler northerly winds, suppressing solar heating and capping peaks below seasonal norms of ~22°C. Model spreads of ±1–2°C stem from uncertainties in precipitation timing and boundary layer mixing, differentiating outcomes: earlier clearing favors 18–19°C, while prolonged overcast supports 16–17°C. Recent 00Z runs slightly lowered guidance from warmer weekend trends. Upcoming 12Z ECMWF updates will clarify exact thermal profiles before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions