Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service short-range forecasts for Miami's May 10 high, with ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF converging on 88-93°F amid a strengthening subtropical ridge promoting sunny skies and efficient afternoon heating. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing, which could cap peaks at 88-89°F if onshore flow strengthens early, versus 92-93°F under prolonged light winds and high humidity amplifying heat index; isolated pop-up thunderstorms pose a minor risk of cloud cover lowering outcomes to 86°F or below. Recent South Florida highs in the mid-to-upper 80s, above the 86°F climatological normal, have held steady without major disruptions, but new 12Z model runs and morning soundings tomorrow will sharpen guidance ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on May 10?
Highest temperature in Miami on May 10?
90-91°F 42%
88-89°F 33%
92-93°F 11%
86-87°F 9%
NEW
$22,760 Vol.
NEW
$22,760 Vol.
May 10, 2026
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
9%
88-89°F
33%
90-91°F
42%
92-93°F
11%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
1%
98°F or higher
<1%
90-91°F 42%
88-89°F 33%
92-93°F 11%
86-87°F 9%
NEW
$22,760 Vol.
NEW
$22,760 Vol.
May 10, 2026
79°F or below
$2,010 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$2,104 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$1,569 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$2,786 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$4,058 Vol.
9%
88-89°F
$1,670 Vol.
33%
90-91°F
$2,156 Vol.
42%
92-93°F
$2,256 Vol.
11%
94-95°F
$2,157 Vol.
1%
96-97°F
$1,249 Vol.
1%
98°F or higher
$755 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service short-range forecasts for Miami's May 10 high, with ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF converging on 88-93°F amid a strengthening subtropical ridge promoting sunny skies and efficient afternoon heating. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing, which could cap peaks at 88-89°F if onshore flow strengthens early, versus 92-93°F under prolonged light winds and high humidity amplifying heat index; isolated pop-up thunderstorms pose a minor risk of cloud cover lowering outcomes to 86°F or below. Recent South Florida highs in the mid-to-upper 80s, above the 86°F climatological normal, have held steady without major disruptions, but new 12Z model runs and morning soundings tomorrow will sharpen guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 8, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$22,760End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service short-range forecasts for Miami's May 10 high, with ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF converging on 88-93°F amid a strengthening subtropical ridge promoting sunny skies and efficient afternoon heating. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing, which could cap peaks at 88-89°F if onshore flow strengthens early, versus 92-93°F under prolonged light winds and high humidity amplifying heat index; isolated pop-up thunderstorms pose a minor risk of cloud cover lowering outcomes to 86°F or below. Recent South Florida highs in the mid-to-upper 80s, above the 86°F climatological normal, have held steady without major disruptions, but new 12Z model runs and morning soundings tomorrow will sharpen guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$22,760End Date
May 10, 2026Market Opened
May 8, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service short-range forecasts for Miami's May 10 high, with ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF converging on 88-93°F amid a strengthening subtropical ridge promoting sunny skies and efficient afternoon heating. Differentiating factors include sea breeze timing, which could cap peaks at 88-89°F if onshore flow strengthens early, versus 92-93°F under prolonged light winds and high humidity amplifying heat index; isolated pop-up thunderstorms pose a minor risk of cloud cover lowering outcomes to 86°F or below. Recent South Florida highs in the mid-to-upper 80s, above the 86°F climatological normal, have held steady without major disruptions, but new 12Z model runs and morning soundings tomorrow will sharpen guidance ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions