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Politics·Global Elections

Galway-West By-Election Winner?

icon for Galway-West By-Election Winner?
Politics·Global Elections

Galway-West By-Election Winner?

Noel Thomas 69%

Mike Cubbard 29.5%

Mark Lohan 16.2%

Sheila Garrity 1.1%

Polymarket

$29,326 Vol.

Noel Thomas 69%

Mike Cubbard 29.5%

Mark Lohan 16.2%

Sheila Garrity 1.1%

Polymarket

$29,326 Vol.

Sheila Garrity

$19,298 Vol.

15%

Seán Kyne

$893 Vol.

<1%

Niall Murphy

$488 Vol.

<1%

Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

$652 Vol.

<1%

Orla Nugent

$656 Vol.

<1%

Helen Ogbu

$1,107 Vol.

16%

Denman Rooke

$545 Vol.

<1%

Noel Thomas

$2,262 Vol.

69%

Thomas Welby

$902 Vol.

<1%

Mike Cubbard

$823 Vol.

16%

Mark Lohan

$1,701 Vol.

12%

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus heavily favors Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas at 68.5% implied probability to win the Galway West Dáil by-election on May 22, driven by his prominent role in recent fuel protests blockading Galway port over soaring energy costs and shortages in Connemara, amplifying localist appeals on cost of living and prior opposition to asylum centers like Rosscahill. His near-miss for a seat in the 2024 general election, combined with rural Independent momentum, positions him to attract transfers from like-minded voters disillusioned with government parties. Mike Cubbard's mayoral profile bolsters his independent bid at 16.3% in urban Galway, while Sheila Garrity's continuity claim to Catherine Connolly's left-leaning independent seat holds at 15.4%, amid fragmented left coordination under Tonn na Clé and no formal polls.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$29,326
End Date
Mar 31, 2027
Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Trader consensus heavily favors Independent Ireland's Noel Thomas at 68.5% implied probability to win the Galway West Dáil by-election on May 22, driven by his prominent role in recent fuel protests blockading Galway port over soaring energy costs and shortages in Connemara, amplifying localist appeals on cost of living and prior opposition to asylum centers like Rosscahill. His near-miss for a seat in the 2024 general election, combined with rural Independent momentum, positions him to attract transfers from like-minded voters disillusioned with government parties. Mike Cubbard's mayoral profile bolsters his independent bid at 16.3% in urban Galway, while Sheila Garrity's continuity claim to Catherine Connolly's left-leaning independent seat holds at 15.4%, amid fragmented left coordination under Tonn na Clé and no formal polls.

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$29,326
End Date
Mar 31, 2027
Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Galway-West By-Election Winner?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Noel Thomas" at 69%, followed by "Helen Ogbu" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 69¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Galway-West By-Election Winner?" has generated $29.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Galway-West By-Election Winner?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Galway-West By-Election Winner?" is "Noel Thomas" at 69%, meaning the market assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Helen Ogbu" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Galway-West By-Election Winner?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.