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Politics·Global Elections

Farrer By-Election Winner

icon for Farrer By-Election Winner
Politics·Global Elections

Farrer By-Election Winner

David Farley 74%

Michelle Milthorpe 26%

Rebecca Scriven <1%

Helen Dalton <1%

Polymarket

$177,020 Vol.

David Farley 74%

Michelle Milthorpe 26%

Rebecca Scriven <1%

Helen Dalton <1%

Polymarket

$177,020 Vol.

icon for David Farley

David Farley

$6,802 Vol.

74%

icon for Michelle Milthorpe

Michelle Milthorpe

$43,412 Vol.

26%

icon for Rebecca Scriven

Rebecca Scriven

$97,967 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helen Dalton

Helen Dalton

$24,479 Vol.

<1%

icon for Raissa Butkowski

Raissa Butkowski

$4,360 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).Leaked internal Liberal Party polling released in the past two days positions One Nation's David Farley as the clear frontrunner in the Farrer by-election, fueling trader consensus on his strong implied probability ahead of the May 9 polling day. Early voting began April 28 in the rural New South Wales electorate, triggered by Sussan Ley's resignation, amid voter frustration over Murray-Darling Basin water issues where Farley advocates reform. Independent Michelle Milthorpe, who secured 43.8% two-candidate-preferred against Ley in the 2025 federal contest, trails as the main challenger bolstered by Climate 200 funding and ad dominance. Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski and others like Family First's Rebecca Scriven languish low due to conservative vote fragmentation, with a Charles Sturt University debate today potentially shifting preferences.

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Volume
$177,020
End Date
May 9, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).Leaked internal Liberal Party polling released in the past two days positions One Nation's David Farley as the clear frontrunner in the Farrer by-election, fueling trader consensus on his strong implied probability ahead of the May 9 polling day. Early voting began April 28 in the rural New South Wales electorate, triggered by Sussan Ley's resignation, amid voter frustration over Murray-Darling Basin water issues where Farley advocates reform. Independent Michelle Milthorpe, who secured 43.8% two-candidate-preferred against Ley in the 2025 federal contest, trails as the main challenger bolstered by Climate 200 funding and ad dominance. Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski and others like Family First's Rebecca Scriven languish low due to conservative vote fragmentation, with a Charles Sturt University debate today potentially shifting preferences.

A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).
Volume
$177,020
End Date
May 9, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives is expected to take place on May 9, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Australian Government, specifically the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) (https://www.aec.gov.au/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Farrer By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "David Farley" at 74%, followed by "Michelle Milthorpe" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 74¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Farrer By-Election Winner" has generated $177K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Farrer By-Election Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Farrer By-Election Winner" is "David Farley" at 74%, meaning the market assigns a 74% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michelle Milthorpe" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Farrer By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.