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icon for FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Florida

FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections·Florida

FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner

Elijah Manley 45%

Dale Holness 28%

Maisha Williams 5.6%

Mark Douglas 5.5%

Polymarket
NEW

Elijah Manley 45%

Dale Holness 28%

Maisha Williams 5.6%

Mark Douglas 5.5%

Polymarket
NEW

Elijah Manley

$1,747 Vol.

45%

Dale Holness

$476 Vol.

41%

Maisha Williams

$261 Vol.

6%

Mark Douglas

$236 Vol.

6%

Luther Campbell

$226 Vol.

5%

Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick

$747 Vol.

2%

Rudy Moise

$435 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Elijah Manley holds a slim trader consensus lead at 47.5% in the FL-20 Democratic primary, reflecting recent polls like the February Listener Group surveys where he topped multi-candidate ballots at 35-38% and led head-to-heads without the incumbent at 45-47%, bolstered by his vocal opposition to Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick's ethics scandals. Her April 21 resignation amid 25 House rule violations and a federal indictment for misusing disaster funds has cratered her viability to 1.8%, shifting focus to challengers. Dale Holness trails closely at 37.5%, buoyed by superior Q1 2026 fundraising with $313,000 cash on hand versus Manley's $23,000, plus prior near-win experience in the district's closed primary set for August 18. Lower-tier candidates lag on polling and resources in this D+22 safe seat.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,128
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 1:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Elijah Manley holds a slim trader consensus lead at 47.5% in the FL-20 Democratic primary, reflecting recent polls like the February Listener Group surveys where he topped multi-candidate ballots at 35-38% and led head-to-heads without the incumbent at 45-47%, bolstered by his vocal opposition to Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick's ethics scandals. Her April 21 resignation amid 25 House rule violations and a federal indictment for misusing disaster funds has cratered her viability to 1.8%, shifting focus to challengers. Dale Holness trails closely at 37.5%, buoyed by superior Q1 2026 fundraising with $313,000 cash on hand versus Manley's $23,000, plus prior near-win experience in the district's closed primary set for August 18. Lower-tier candidates lag on polling and resources in this D+22 safe seat.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,128
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 1:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Elijah Manley" at 45%, followed by "Dale Holness" at 41%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 22, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner" is "Elijah Manley" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dale Holness" at 41%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.