Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's 5th domestic weekend (May 1-3), with 13.5-14.5 million edging out at 27% implied probability amid steady legs from strong family word-of-mouth (A- CinemaScore, 79% PostTrak) despite mixed 43% Rotten Tomatoes critics score. The film's 4th weekend haul of $20.6 million (-44% drop, from 3,732 theaters) beat softer projections, pushing cumulative domestic past $388 million and sustaining Nintendo brand momentum akin to the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's durable run. However, new competition from The Devil Wears Prada 2's wide Friday debut and holdovers like Michael and Project Hail Mary could accelerate drops to 40-50%, differentiating outcomes—watch Thursday presales and family turnout for swing signals ahead of May 5 digital drop.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 5th Weekend Box Office
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 5th Weekend Box Office
11.5-12.5m 27%
13.5-14.5m 27%
<11.5m 26%
>14.5m 24%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
<11.5m
26%
11.5-12.5m
27%
12.5-13.5m
24%
13.5-14.5m
27%
>14.5m
24%
11.5-12.5m 27%
13.5-14.5m 27%
<11.5m 26%
>14.5m 24%
NEW
NEW
May 4, 2026
<11.5m
$0 Vol.
26%
11.5-12.5m
$0 Vol.
27%
12.5-13.5m
$0 Vol.
24%
13.5-14.5m
$0 Vol.
27%
>14.5m
$0 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fifth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's 5th domestic weekend (May 1-3), with 13.5-14.5 million edging out at 27% implied probability amid steady legs from strong family word-of-mouth (A- CinemaScore, 79% PostTrak) despite mixed 43% Rotten Tomatoes critics score. The film's 4th weekend haul of $20.6 million (-44% drop, from 3,732 theaters) beat softer projections, pushing cumulative domestic past $388 million and sustaining Nintendo brand momentum akin to the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's durable run. However, new competition from The Devil Wears Prada 2's wide Friday debut and holdovers like Michael and Project Hail Mary could accelerate drops to 40-50%, differentiating outcomes—watch Thursday presales and family turnout for swing signals ahead of May 5 digital drop.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fifth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 11:27 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 11:27 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fifth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's 5th domestic weekend (May 1-3), with 13.5-14.5 million edging out at 27% implied probability amid steady legs from strong family word-of-mouth (A- CinemaScore, 79% PostTrak) despite mixed 43% Rotten Tomatoes critics score. The film's 4th weekend haul of $20.6 million (-44% drop, from 3,732 theaters) beat softer projections, pushing cumulative domestic past $388 million and sustaining Nintendo brand momentum akin to the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's durable run. However, new competition from The Devil Wears Prada 2's wide Friday debut and holdovers like Michael and Project Hail Mary could accelerate drops to 40-50%, differentiating outcomes—watch Thursday presales and family turnout for swing signals ahead of May 5 digital drop.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fifth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$0End Date
May 4, 2026Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 11:27 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's 5th domestic weekend (May 1-3), with 13.5-14.5 million edging out at 27% implied probability amid steady legs from strong family word-of-mouth (A- CinemaScore, 79% PostTrak) despite mixed 43% Rotten Tomatoes critics score. The film's 4th weekend haul of $20.6 million (-44% drop, from 3,732 theaters) beat softer projections, pushing cumulative domestic past $388 million and sustaining Nintendo brand momentum akin to the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's durable run. However, new competition from The Devil Wears Prada 2's wide Friday debut and holdovers like Michael and Project Hail Mary could accelerate drops to 40-50%, differentiating outcomes—watch Thursday presales and family turnout for swing signals ahead of May 5 digital drop.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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