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"Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office

icon for "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office

"Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office

May 4

May 4

May 4

May 4

May 4

May 4

May 4

May 4

45-50m 48%

50-55m 37%

>55m 30%

40-45m 25%

Polymarket
NEW

45-50m 48%

50-55m 37%

>55m 30%

40-45m 25%

Polymarket
NEW

<35m

$0 Vol.

7%

35-40m

$0 Vol.

10%

40-45m

$100 Vol.

25%

45-50m

$4 Vol.

31%

50-55m

$0 Vol.

37%

>55m

$50 Vol.

35%

This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Following its record-shattering $97 million domestic opening weekend—the largest ever for a musical biopic—"Michael" has shown impressive early legs with a $7.7 million Monday and $11.1 million Tuesday, the fourth-best April Tuesday for a live-action film, buoyed by an A- CinemaScore and audience enthusiasm for high-energy concert sequences despite a dismal 38% Rotten Tomatoes score. Trader consensus clusters around a 45-55% sophomore frame drop to $45-55 million, pitting 50-55m (36.5%) against >55m (35%) and 45-50m (31.5%), as strong word-of-mouth and IMAX premium holdover appeal battle new competition from Disney's female-led tentpole. A Bohemian Rhapsody-like sub-50% drop could push toward $55 million-plus, with Sunday estimates as the key swing factor.

This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$154
End Date
May 4, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 11:26 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.the-numbers.com/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Following its record-shattering $97 million domestic opening weekend—the largest ever for a musical biopic—"Michael" has shown impressive early legs with a $7.7 million Monday and $11.1 million Tuesday, the fourth-best April Tuesday for a live-action film, buoyed by an A- CinemaScore and audience enthusiasm for high-energy concert sequences despite a dismal 38% Rotten Tomatoes score. Trader consensus clusters around a 45-55% sophomore frame drop to $45-55 million, pitting 50-55m (36.5%) against >55m (35%) and 45-50m (31.5%), as strong word-of-mouth and IMAX premium holdover appeal battle new competition from Disney's female-led tentpole. A Bohemian Rhapsody-like sub-50% drop could push toward $55 million-plus, with Sunday estimates as the key swing factor.

This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$154
End Date
May 4, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 11:26 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.the-numbers.com/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

""Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "50-55m" at 37%, followed by ">55m" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

""Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on ""Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for ""Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office" is "50-55m" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is ">55m" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for ""Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.