Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no ECB rate cut in 2026 at 85.5%, driven by persistent Eurozone inflation averaging 2.6% in March—up from February—and revised ECB staff projections holding headline inflation at 2.6% for the year amid the Iran war's energy price shocks. The Governing Council kept key rates unchanged at 2% in its March 19 meeting, signaling a restrictive stance with growth forecasts trimmed to 0.9%. IMF and banks like Morgan Stanley now anticipate potential 50 basis point hikes rather than easing, as consumer inflation expectations surged to 4% one-year ahead. Today's April 30 policy decision is widely expected to hold steady, reinforcing no-cut positioning absent disinflation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$28,475 Vol.
$28,475 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$28,475 Vol.
$28,475 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no ECB rate cut in 2026 at 85.5%, driven by persistent Eurozone inflation averaging 2.6% in March—up from February—and revised ECB staff projections holding headline inflation at 2.6% for the year amid the Iran war's energy price shocks. The Governing Council kept key rates unchanged at 2% in its March 19 meeting, signaling a restrictive stance with growth forecasts trimmed to 0.9%. IMF and banks like Morgan Stanley now anticipate potential 50 basis point hikes rather than easing, as consumer inflation expectations surged to 4% one-year ahead. Today's April 30 policy decision is widely expected to hold steady, reinforcing no-cut positioning absent disinflation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$28,475End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no ECB rate cut in 2026 at 85.5%, driven by persistent Eurozone inflation averaging 2.6% in March—up from February—and revised ECB staff projections holding headline inflation at 2.6% for the year amid the Iran war's energy price shocks. The Governing Council kept key rates unchanged at 2% in its March 19 meeting, signaling a restrictive stance with growth forecasts trimmed to 0.9%. IMF and banks like Morgan Stanley now anticipate potential 50 basis point hikes rather than easing, as consumer inflation expectations surged to 4% one-year ahead. Today's April 30 policy decision is widely expected to hold steady, reinforcing no-cut positioning absent disinflation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,475End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no ECB rate cut in 2026 at 85.5%, driven by persistent Eurozone inflation averaging 2.6% in March—up from February—and revised ECB staff projections holding headline inflation at 2.6% for the year amid the Iran war's energy price shocks. The Governing Council kept key rates unchanged at 2% in its March 19 meeting, signaling a restrictive stance with growth forecasts trimmed to 0.9%. IMF and banks like Morgan Stanley now anticipate potential 50 basis point hikes rather than easing, as consumer inflation expectations surged to 4% one-year ahead. Today's April 30 policy decision is widely expected to hold steady, reinforcing no-cut positioning absent disinflation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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