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World·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

icon for Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?
World·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

Iván Cepeda Castro 92%

Abelardo de la Espriella 7.3%

Paloma Valencia 1.3%

Juan Daniel Oviedo <1%

Polymarket

$5,530,620 Vol.

Iván Cepeda Castro 92%

Abelardo de la Espriella 7.3%

Paloma Valencia 1.3%

Juan Daniel Oviedo <1%

Polymarket

$5,530,620 Vol.

icon for Iván Cepeda Castro

Iván Cepeda Castro

$470,163 Vol.

92%

icon for Abelardo de la Espriella

Abelardo de la Espriella

$879,779 Vol.

7%

icon for Paloma Valencia

Paloma Valencia

$446,101 Vol.

1%

icon for Juan Daniel Oviedo

Juan Daniel Oviedo

$174,239 Vol.

<1%

icon for Sergio Fajardo

Sergio Fajardo

$240,347 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Manuel Galán

Juan Manuel Galán

$263,166 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Carlos Pinzón

Juan Carlos Pinzón

$179,567 Vol.

<1%

icon for Vicky Dávila

Vicky Dávila

$475,306 Vol.

<1%

icon for Luis Gilberto Murillo

Luis Gilberto Murillo

$329,411 Vol.

<1%

icon for Claudia López

Claudia López

$261,524 Vol.

<1%

icon for David Luna Sánchez

David Luna Sánchez

$281,733 Vol.

<1%

icon for Germán Vargas Lleras

Germán Vargas Lleras

$241,809 Vol.

<1%

icon for Roy Barreras

Roy Barreras

$226,671 Vol.

<1%

icon for Daniel Quintero

Daniel Quintero

$211,316 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mauricio Cárdenas

Mauricio Cárdenas

$290,180 Vol.

<1%

icon for Enrique Peñalosa

Enrique Peñalosa

$270,855 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gustavo Bolívar

Gustavo Bolívar

$262,533 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Iván Cepeda Castro's commanding trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to win Colombia's presidential first round on May 31 stems from consistent polling leads, including Invamer's April survey showing him at 44.3%—more than double Abelardo de la Espriella's 21.5% and Paloma Valencia's 19.8%—and GAD3's 38% top spot amid a fragmented field. Recent Alianza Verde endorsement on April 29 bolsters Pacto Histórico's momentum from March parliamentary gains, signaling left-wing consolidation toward an outright majority. While exceeding 50% remains tight, traders price in low upset risk; realistic challenges include right-wing vote unification, Cauca security escalations curbing turnout, or scandals before election day.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$5,530,620
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Iván Cepeda Castro's commanding trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to win Colombia's presidential first round on May 31 stems from consistent polling leads, including Invamer's April survey showing him at 44.3%—more than double Abelardo de la Espriella's 21.5% and Paloma Valencia's 19.8%—and GAD3's 38% top spot amid a fragmented field. Recent Alianza Verde endorsement on April 29 bolsters Pacto Histórico's momentum from March parliamentary gains, signaling left-wing consolidation toward an outright majority. While exceeding 50% remains tight, traders price in low upset risk; realistic challenges include right-wing vote unification, Cauca security escalations curbing turnout, or scandals before election day.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$5,530,620
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

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Frequently Asked Questions

" Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 18 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 92%, followed by "Abelardo de la Espriella" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" has generated $5.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?," browse the 18 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Abelardo de la Espriella" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for " Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.