Supporters of California's 2026 Billionaire Tax Act submitted over 1.5 million signatures last week—nearly double the threshold—securing likely qualification for the November ballot, where voters would decide on a one-time 5% wealth tax on net worth exceeding $1 billion to fund healthcare, education, and food assistance. Trader consensus implies a 55.5% probability of failure, driven by Governor Gavin Newsom's public opposition, heavy spending by Silicon Valley tech leaders and business groups warning of billionaire exodus and net state revenue losses estimated at $25 billion from capital flight, and polls showing soft support around 55% yes amid partisan Democratic divisions and voter concerns over asset taxation. Upcoming signature verification and campaign battles could shift dynamics ahead of election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$3,203,756 Vol.
$3,203,756 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
$3,203,756 Vol.
$3,203,756 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Supporters of California's 2026 Billionaire Tax Act submitted over 1.5 million signatures last week—nearly double the threshold—securing likely qualification for the November ballot, where voters would decide on a one-time 5% wealth tax on net worth exceeding $1 billion to fund healthcare, education, and food assistance. Trader consensus implies a 55.5% probability of failure, driven by Governor Gavin Newsom's public opposition, heavy spending by Silicon Valley tech leaders and business groups warning of billionaire exodus and net state revenue losses estimated at $25 billion from capital flight, and polls showing soft support around 55% yes amid partisan Democratic divisions and voter concerns over asset taxation. Upcoming signature verification and campaign battles could shift dynamics ahead of election day.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volume
$3,203,756End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Supporters of California's 2026 Billionaire Tax Act submitted over 1.5 million signatures last week—nearly double the threshold—securing likely qualification for the November ballot, where voters would decide on a one-time 5% wealth tax on net worth exceeding $1 billion to fund healthcare, education, and food assistance. Trader consensus implies a 55.5% probability of failure, driven by Governor Gavin Newsom's public opposition, heavy spending by Silicon Valley tech leaders and business groups warning of billionaire exodus and net state revenue losses estimated at $25 billion from capital flight, and polls showing soft support around 55% yes amid partisan Democratic divisions and voter concerns over asset taxation. Upcoming signature verification and campaign battles could shift dynamics ahead of election day.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,203,756End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Supporters of California's 2026 Billionaire Tax Act submitted over 1.5 million signatures last week—nearly double the threshold—securing likely qualification for the November ballot, where voters would decide on a one-time 5% wealth tax on net worth exceeding $1 billion to fund healthcare, education, and food assistance. Trader consensus implies a 55.5% probability of failure, driven by Governor Gavin Newsom's public opposition, heavy spending by Silicon Valley tech leaders and business groups warning of billionaire exodus and net state revenue losses estimated at $25 billion from capital flight, and polls showing soft support around 55% yes amid partisan Democratic divisions and voter concerns over asset taxation. Upcoming signature verification and campaign battles could shift dynamics ahead of election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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