**The 2026 California Billionaire Tax Act ballot initiative proposes a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of residents exceeding $1 billion (roughly 200 individuals) as of January 1, 2026, valued at year-end and payable over up to five years, to fund healthcare, education, and food assistance programs.** Proponents submitted 1.55 million signatures in late April—nearly double the threshold—positioning it for likely qualification ahead of the Secretary of State’s June 25 deadline and a November 3 vote. Early and mid-2026 polling showed narrow leads for passage (PPIC at 54% yes/45% no in May; Berkeley IGS at 52%/33% in March), but support remains soft and highly responsive to arguments about billionaire flight, long-term revenue loss from out-migration, and legal vulnerabilities in residency and valuation rules. Opposition from business groups, anticipated heavy counter-campaign spending, and reports of high-profile residents relocating to low-tax states like Florida and Nevada have reinforced trader expectations that the measure will fall short of a majority, consistent with the 65.5% “No” pricing on Polymarket. Legal challenges are widely viewed as probable even if voters approve it, further tilting implied probabilities toward failure at the ballot box.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$3,370,140 Vol.
$3,370,140 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
$3,370,140 Vol.
$3,370,140 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The 2026 California Billionaire Tax Act ballot initiative proposes a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of residents exceeding $1 billion (roughly 200 individuals) as of January 1, 2026, valued at year-end and payable over up to five years, to fund healthcare, education, and food assistance programs.**
Proponents submitted 1.55 million signatures in late April—nearly double the threshold—positioning it for likely qualification ahead of the Secretary of State’s June 25 deadline and a November 3 vote. Early and mid-2026 polling showed narrow leads for passage (PPIC at 54% yes/45% no in May; Berkeley IGS at 52%/33% in March), but support remains soft and highly responsive to arguments about billionaire flight, long-term revenue loss from out-migration, and legal vulnerabilities in residency and valuation rules.
Opposition from business groups, anticipated heavy counter-campaign spending, and reports of high-profile residents relocating to low-tax states like Florida and Nevada have reinforced trader expectations that the measure will fall short of a majority, consistent with the 65.5% “No” pricing on Polymarket. Legal challenges are widely viewed as probable even if voters approve it, further tilting implied probabilities toward failure at the ballot box.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volume
$3,370,140End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The 2026 California Billionaire Tax Act ballot initiative proposes a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of residents exceeding $1 billion (roughly 200 individuals) as of January 1, 2026, valued at year-end and payable over up to five years, to fund healthcare, education, and food assistance programs.**
Proponents submitted 1.55 million signatures in late April—nearly double the threshold—positioning it for likely qualification ahead of the Secretary of State’s June 25 deadline and a November 3 vote. Early and mid-2026 polling showed narrow leads for passage (PPIC at 54% yes/45% no in May; Berkeley IGS at 52%/33% in March), but support remains soft and highly responsive to arguments about billionaire flight, long-term revenue loss from out-migration, and legal vulnerabilities in residency and valuation rules.
Opposition from business groups, anticipated heavy counter-campaign spending, and reports of high-profile residents relocating to low-tax states like Florida and Nevada have reinforced trader expectations that the measure will fall short of a majority, consistent with the 65.5% “No” pricing on Polymarket. Legal challenges are widely viewed as probable even if voters approve it, further tilting implied probabilities toward failure at the ballot box.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,370,140End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**The 2026 California Billionaire Tax Act ballot initiative proposes a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of residents exceeding $1 billion (roughly 200 individuals) as of January 1, 2026, valued at year-end and payable over up to five years, to fund healthcare, education, and food assistance programs.** Proponents submitted 1.55 million signatures in late April—nearly double the threshold—positioning it for likely qualification ahead of the Secretary of State’s June 25 deadline and a November 3 vote. Early and mid-2026 polling showed narrow leads for passage (PPIC at 54% yes/45% no in May; Berkeley IGS at 52%/33% in March), but support remains soft and highly responsive to arguments about billionaire flight, long-term revenue loss from out-migration, and legal vulnerabilities in residency and valuation rules. Opposition from business groups, anticipated heavy counter-campaign spending, and reports of high-profile residents relocating to low-tax states like Florida and Nevada have reinforced trader expectations that the measure will fall short of a majority, consistent with the 65.5% “No” pricing on Polymarket. Legal challenges are widely viewed as probable even if voters approve it, further tilting implied probabilities toward failure at the ballot box.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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