**Proponents of the 2026 California Billionaire Tax Act submitted 1.55 million signatures on April 27, exceeding the roughly 875,000 required for the November ballot, but the measure remains in verification limbo ahead of the Secretary of State’s June 25 deadline.** The initiative would impose a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of roughly 200 California residents above $1 billion to fund healthcare, education, and food assistance programs. Signature validation carries inherent uncertainty because a significant share of raw signatures are typically invalidated, and competing ballot measures have already surfaced as potential alternatives or countermeasures. Early polling has shown modest voter support around 52% in favor, yet organized opposition is expected to mobilize substantial resources against qualification and passage. Traders appear to weigh these procedural and legal risks— including residency-date challenges and constitutional questions—more heavily than the signature surplus when assessing the probability it reaches the ballot.