**Democratic prospects of capturing the House in the November 2026 midterms remain the dominant driver behind the 65.5% implied probability that Donald Trump will face impeachment before January 2029.** Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority following the 2024 elections, but generic ballot polling shows Democrats with a modest advantage heading into the midterms, consistent with historical patterns for the opposition party. A Democratic takeover would give the incoming majority (seated January 2027) both the procedural ability and political incentive to advance articles of impeachment, as several Democratic lawmakers have already signaled. Low presidential approval ratings near 37%, public dissatisfaction with economic conditions such as gas prices, and earlier foreign-policy actions in Venezuela and Iran have further elevated trader expectations of eventual proceedings. Markets on comparable platforms reflect similar pricing, underscoring that the current consensus rests primarily on anticipated shifts in congressional control rather than immediate legislative momentum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Trump será destituido antes de que termine su mandato?
¿Trump será destituido antes de que termine su mandato?
Sí
$65,781 Vol.
$65,781 Vol.
20 ene 2029
Sí
$65,781 Vol.
$65,781 Vol.
20 ene 2029
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.**Democratic prospects of capturing the House in the November 2026 midterms remain the dominant driver behind the 65.5% implied probability that Donald Trump will face impeachment before January 2029.**
Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority following the 2024 elections, but generic ballot polling shows Democrats with a modest advantage heading into the midterms, consistent with historical patterns for the opposition party. A Democratic takeover would give the incoming majority (seated January 2027) both the procedural ability and political incentive to advance articles of impeachment, as several Democratic lawmakers have already signaled. Low presidential approval ratings near 37%, public dissatisfaction with economic conditions such as gas prices, and earlier foreign-policy actions in Venezuela and Iran have further elevated trader expectations of eventual proceedings. Markets on comparable platforms reflect similar pricing, underscoring that the current consensus rests primarily on anticipated shifts in congressional control rather than immediate legislative momentum.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volumen
$65,781Fecha de finalización
20 ene 2029Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.**Democratic prospects of capturing the House in the November 2026 midterms remain the dominant driver behind the 65.5% implied probability that Donald Trump will face impeachment before January 2029.**
Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority following the 2024 elections, but generic ballot polling shows Democrats with a modest advantage heading into the midterms, consistent with historical patterns for the opposition party. A Democratic takeover would give the incoming majority (seated January 2027) both the procedural ability and political incentive to advance articles of impeachment, as several Democratic lawmakers have already signaled. Low presidential approval ratings near 37%, public dissatisfaction with economic conditions such as gas prices, and earlier foreign-policy actions in Venezuela and Iran have further elevated trader expectations of eventual proceedings. Markets on comparable platforms reflect similar pricing, underscoring that the current consensus rests primarily on anticipated shifts in congressional control rather than immediate legislative momentum.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volumen
$65,781Fecha de finalización
20 ene 2029Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Democratic prospects of capturing the House in the November 2026 midterms remain the dominant driver behind the 65.5% implied probability that Donald Trump will face impeachment before January 2029.** Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority following the 2024 elections, but generic ballot polling shows Democrats with a modest advantage heading into the midterms, consistent with historical patterns for the opposition party. A Democratic takeover would give the incoming majority (seated January 2027) both the procedural ability and political incentive to advance articles of impeachment, as several Democratic lawmakers have already signaled. Low presidential approval ratings near 37%, public dissatisfaction with economic conditions such as gas prices, and earlier foreign-policy actions in Venezuela and Iran have further elevated trader expectations of eventual proceedings. Markets on comparable platforms reflect similar pricing, underscoring that the current consensus rests primarily on anticipated shifts in congressional control rather than immediate legislative momentum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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