**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts from the @khamenei_ir account during June 16–23, 2026 (86% implied probability), with all higher bins trading below 6%.** This positioning reflects the account’s established low baseline activity following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in early 2026. Official statements now appear primarily around anniversaries, major diplomatic developments, or escalations rather than on a regular schedule. Similar weekly contracts in early June priced sub-five outcomes at 67–85%, consistent with observed posting patterns that remain sparse absent fresh triggers. No major military, nuclear, or leadership events are currently scheduled inside the resolution window that would prompt a sustained series of statements. Historical precedent shows occasional spikes only during active crises, leaving the market’s assessment anchored on routine, low-volume output for this period.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Khamenei # publica del 16 al 23 de junio de 2026?
¿Khamenei # publica del 16 al 23 de junio de 2026?
<5 86%
5-9 5.3%
10-14 2.8%
15-19 1.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 jun 2026
<5
86%
5-9
5%
10-14
3%
15-19
2%
20-24
1%
25-29
<1%
30-34
<1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
<1%
45-49
<1%
50-54
<1%
55-59
<1%
60+
<1%
<5 86%
5-9 5.3%
10-14 2.8%
15-19 1.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 jun 2026
<5
$645 Vol.
86%
5-9
$269 Vol.
5%
10-14
$157 Vol.
3%
15-19
$175 Vol.
2%
20-24
$108 Vol.
1%
25-29
$117 Vol.
<1%
30-34
$108 Vol.
<1%
35-39
$153 Vol.
<1%
40-44
$138 Vol.
<1%
45-49
$118 Vol.
<1%
50-54
$168 Vol.
<1%
55-59
$178 Vol.
<1%
60+
$168 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between June 16, 12:00 PM ET and June 23, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts from the @khamenei_ir account during June 16–23, 2026 (86% implied probability), with all higher bins trading below 6%.**
This positioning reflects the account’s established low baseline activity following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in early 2026. Official statements now appear primarily around anniversaries, major diplomatic developments, or escalations rather than on a regular schedule. Similar weekly contracts in early June priced sub-five outcomes at 67–85%, consistent with observed posting patterns that remain sparse absent fresh triggers.
No major military, nuclear, or leadership events are currently scheduled inside the resolution window that would prompt a sustained series of statements. Historical precedent shows occasional spikes only during active crises, leaving the market’s assessment anchored on routine, low-volume output for this period.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between June 16, 12:00 PM ET and June 23, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Jun 13, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volumen
$2,502Fecha de finalización
23 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:01 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between June 16, 12:00 PM ET and June 23, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts from the @khamenei_ir account during June 16–23, 2026 (86% implied probability), with all higher bins trading below 6%.**
This positioning reflects the account’s established low baseline activity following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in early 2026. Official statements now appear primarily around anniversaries, major diplomatic developments, or escalations rather than on a regular schedule. Similar weekly contracts in early June priced sub-five outcomes at 67–85%, consistent with observed posting patterns that remain sparse absent fresh triggers.
No major military, nuclear, or leadership events are currently scheduled inside the resolution window that would prompt a sustained series of statements. Historical precedent shows occasional spikes only during active crises, leaving the market’s assessment anchored on routine, low-volume output for this period.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between June 16, 12:00 PM ET and June 23, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$2,502Fecha de finalización
23 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 12:01 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts from the @khamenei_ir account during June 16–23, 2026 (86% implied probability), with all higher bins trading below 6%.** This positioning reflects the account’s established low baseline activity following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in early 2026. Official statements now appear primarily around anniversaries, major diplomatic developments, or escalations rather than on a regular schedule. Similar weekly contracts in early June priced sub-five outcomes at 67–85%, consistent with observed posting patterns that remain sparse absent fresh triggers. No major military, nuclear, or leadership events are currently scheduled inside the resolution window that would prompt a sustained series of statements. Historical precedent shows occasional spikes only during active crises, leaving the market’s assessment anchored on routine, low-volume output for this period.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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