**Ongoing military escalation between the United States and Iran, coupled with Iran's June 2026 closure announcements, underpins the 70.5% "No" probability on the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 15.** Since late February 2026, U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets triggered Iranian military assertions of control over the waterway, reducing daily transits from pre-conflict levels of roughly 130–160 vessels to a trickle of 5–10 ships. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has coordinated limited passages while declaring the strait closed to unauthorized traffic, with fresh closure orders issued around June 10–11 following renewed U.S. strikes. A U.S. naval blockade remains in effect, and recent incidents—including vessel interceptions and threats—have kept commercial shipping risk elevated. No verified diplomatic breakthrough or security arrangement has restored pre-war flows, and analysts note that credible U.S.-Iran agreements would be needed for material recovery. With active conflict and enforcement actions continuing into mid-June, traders assess low odds of normalized traffic (full pre-war volumes without Iranian coordination requirements) materializing within the next month. Scheduled or potential de-escalation talks could still shift sentiment, but current conditions favor sustained disruption.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿El tráfico del Estrecho de Ormuz vuelve a la normalidad el 15 de julio?
¿El tráfico del Estrecho de Ormuz vuelve a la normalidad el 15 de julio?
Sí
NUEVO
$79,240 Vol.
NUEVO
$79,240 Vol.
15 jul 2026
Sí
NUEVO
$79,240 Vol.
NUEVO
$79,240 Vol.
15 jul 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing military escalation between the United States and Iran, coupled with Iran's June 2026 closure announcements, underpins the 70.5% "No" probability on the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 15.**
Since late February 2026, U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets triggered Iranian military assertions of control over the waterway, reducing daily transits from pre-conflict levels of roughly 130–160 vessels to a trickle of 5–10 ships. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has coordinated limited passages while declaring the strait closed to unauthorized traffic, with fresh closure orders issued around June 10–11 following renewed U.S. strikes. A U.S. naval blockade remains in effect, and recent incidents—including vessel interceptions and threats—have kept commercial shipping risk elevated.
No verified diplomatic breakthrough or security arrangement has restored pre-war flows, and analysts note that credible U.S.-Iran agreements would be needed for material recovery. With active conflict and enforcement actions continuing into mid-June, traders assess low odds of normalized traffic (full pre-war volumes without Iranian coordination requirements) materializing within the next month. Scheduled or potential de-escalation talks could still shift sentiment, but current conditions favor sustained disruption.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Jun 13, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volumen
$79,240Fecha de finalización
15 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing military escalation between the United States and Iran, coupled with Iran's June 2026 closure announcements, underpins the 70.5% "No" probability on the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 15.**
Since late February 2026, U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets triggered Iranian military assertions of control over the waterway, reducing daily transits from pre-conflict levels of roughly 130–160 vessels to a trickle of 5–10 ships. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has coordinated limited passages while declaring the strait closed to unauthorized traffic, with fresh closure orders issued around June 10–11 following renewed U.S. strikes. A U.S. naval blockade remains in effect, and recent incidents—including vessel interceptions and threats—have kept commercial shipping risk elevated.
No verified diplomatic breakthrough or security arrangement has restored pre-war flows, and analysts note that credible U.S.-Iran agreements would be needed for material recovery. With active conflict and enforcement actions continuing into mid-June, traders assess low odds of normalized traffic (full pre-war volumes without Iranian coordination requirements) materializing within the next month. Scheduled or potential de-escalation talks could still shift sentiment, but current conditions favor sustained disruption.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$80,679Fecha de finalización
15 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 13, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing military escalation between the United States and Iran, coupled with Iran's June 2026 closure announcements, underpins the 70.5% "No" probability on the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by July 15.** Since late February 2026, U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets triggered Iranian military assertions of control over the waterway, reducing daily transits from pre-conflict levels of roughly 130–160 vessels to a trickle of 5–10 ships. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has coordinated limited passages while declaring the strait closed to unauthorized traffic, with fresh closure orders issued around June 10–11 following renewed U.S. strikes. A U.S. naval blockade remains in effect, and recent incidents—including vessel interceptions and threats—have kept commercial shipping risk elevated. No verified diplomatic breakthrough or security arrangement has restored pre-war flows, and analysts note that credible U.S.-Iran agreements would be needed for material recovery. With active conflict and enforcement actions continuing into mid-June, traders assess low odds of normalized traffic (full pre-war volumes without Iranian coordination requirements) materializing within the next month. Scheduled or potential de-escalation talks could still shift sentiment, but current conditions favor sustained disruption.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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