Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger of their parties into "Together," led by Bennett, aiming to challenge Netanyahu

Yair Lapid dips to 1%1%

Lapid agreed to merge Yesh Atid with Bennett's party under Bennett's leadership, signaling a diminished role for Lapid and a strategic move to unify the opposition. The market reacted by pushing Lapid's individual chances to near zero, reflecting his reduced prominence in the alliance.

During a meeting with UN special coordinator for Lebanon, Katz threatens “catastrophic consequences” if Hezbollah continues defiance, linking his stance to regional security and

Israel Katz dips to 0%1%

During a meeting with UN special coordinator for Lebanon, Katz threatens “catastrophic consequences” if Hezbollah continues defiance, linking his stance to regional security and further cementing his hard‑line reputation

Formal public announcement and press conference of the Bennett-Lapid party merger, emphasizing unity and reform agenda, boosting Bennett’s market standing significantly

Naftali Bennett jumps to 43%7%

Formal public announcement and press conference of the Bennett-Lapid party merger, emphasizing unity and reform agenda, boosting Bennett’s market standing significantly

Bennett, Lapid and Eisenkot appear together at a press conference, confirming negotiations for a three‑way alliance;

Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 23%14%

market reacts to the possibility of Eisenkot entering a coalition that could secure the premiership

Political reactions emerge with opposition welcoming the merger and Netanyahu’s coalition criticizing it, intensifying the election campaign dynamics

Political reactions emerge with opposition welcoming the merger and Netanyahu’s coalition criticizing it, intensifying the election campaign dynamics

Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint “Together” list and explicitly invite Eisenkot to join, raising expectations that his party could become a king‑maker

Gadi Eizenkot drops to 9%11%

Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce a joint “Together” list and explicitly invite Eisenkot to join, raising expectations that his party could become a king‑maker

Katz publicly states Israel is “prepared to renew the war against Iran” and is waiting for a U.S.

Israel Katz dips to 1%1%

green light, repeating the same message across several outlets (Jerusalem Post, Pravda USA, Naharnet)

Polls show Lapid's Yesh Atid losing seats amid growing support for Netanyahu and opposition fragmentation

Yair Lapid dips to 2%1%

Opinion polls indicated declining support for Lapid's party, reflecting challenges in consolidating the opposition vote and Netanyahu's enduring popularity. This contributed to further erosion of market confidence in Lapid's chances.

Market dip (-3 points) shortly after the merger announcement, possibly reflecting initial skepticism or market adjustment to the new alliance

Naftali Bennett dips to 27%3%

Market dip (-3 points) shortly after the merger announcement, possibly reflecting initial skepticism or market adjustment to the new alliance

Blue and White launches campaign against Arab party Ra’am and far-right Ben-Gvir, calling for national unity government without them

Benny Gantz dips to 1%1%

Gantz's new campaign focused on excluding extremist and Islamist parties, but critics accused it of aiding Netanyahu, and Blue and White remained weak in polls, limiting.

Katz joins IDF generals and Culture Minister Miki Zohar in lifting COVID‑related restrictions in northern Israel, a routine domestic move that briefly softened his war‑minister

Israel Katz rises to 2%1%

Katz joins IDF generals and Culture Minister Miki Zohar in lifting COVID‑related restrictions in northern Israel, a routine domestic move that briefly softened his war‑minister image

Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger of their parties into a unified list "Together, Led by Bennett," aiming to challenge Netanyahu and consolidate opposition votes ahead of

Naftali Bennett rises to 30%3%

Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger of their parties into a unified list "Together, Led by Bennett," aiming to challenge Netanyahu and consolidate opposition votes ahead of October elections

Lieberman publicly attacks Netanyahu’s Iran policy, but gains no parliamentary support

Avigdor Lieberman rises to 5%4%

In an interview with Voice of Emirates, Lieberman condemned the government’s approach to Iran and called for regime change, but the remarks failed to translate into new parliamentary backing. The brief media attention produced a modest uptick in his

Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu visit IDF troops in southern Lebanon, announcing “Operation Silver Plow” to disarm Hezbollah, raising his security‑focused profile

Israel Katz rises to 1%1%

Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu visit IDF troops in southern Lebanon, announcing “Operation Silver Plow” to disarm Hezbollah, raising his security‑focused profile

Israel Katz warns Iran that Israel is “awaiting a green light” from the United States before renewing war operations, emphasizing “different and deadly” attacks

Israel Katz dips to 0%3%

Israel Katz warns Iran that Israel is “awaiting a green light” from the United States before renewing war operations, emphasizing “different and deadly” attacks

Netanyahu remains Prime Minister amid ongoing political uncertainty;

Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 47%5%

opposition parties form alliances but Likud holds power

Netanyahu publicly refutes rumors of death and interim PM appointment of Yariv Levin amid viral misinformation

Netanyahu directly addressed and dismissed false reports of his death and Levin’s appointment as interim PM, quashing speculation and stabilizing Levin’s market.

Market spike (+11 points) with no clear news driver identified;

Naftali Bennett jumps to 38%11%

possibly linked to internal polling or political speculation about Bennett’s chances

Gantz welcomes Bennett-Lapid alliance but calls for broad Zionist unity government excluding extremists

Benny Gantz rises to 3%2%

Following the announcement of the "Together" alliance between Bennett and Lapid, Gantz expressed support for a broad unity government, briefly boosting his market.

Justice Minister Yariv Levin recuses himself from handling Netanyahu’s pardon request to avoid conflict of interest

Levin delegated the handling of Netanyahu’s pardon request to another minister, demonstrating his continued ministerial role but no advancement toward premiership.

Lapid publicly supports Israeli strikes on Iran and calls for regime change, setting aside rivalry with Netanyahu

Yair Lapid rises to 4%2%

In a rare moment of unity amid escalating conflict, Lapid backed Netanyahu's military actions against Iran, emphasizing national security over political rivalry. This stance briefly improved his standing as a serious leader but did not reverse the overall downward trend.

Bennett publicly mocks Tucker Carlson’s false claims of detention at Ben Gurion Airport, reinforcing Bennett’s assertive public image amid international media disputes

Naftali Bennett rises to 34%3%

Bennett publicly mocks Tucker Carlson’s false claims of detention at Ben Gurion Airport, reinforcing Bennett’s assertive public image amid international media disputes

Failed talks between Lieberman and Bennett‑Lapid bloc collapse, leaving Yisrael Beiteinu without a coalition partner

Avigdor Lieberman dips to 1%1%

Negotiations for a joint opposition bloc between Lieberman’s party and the Bennett‑Lapid alliance broke down over disagreements on cabinet portfolios. The collapse eliminated any realistic path for Lieberman to re‑enter a governing coalition, pushing his market

Netanyahu publicly states holding early elections now would be a mistake, emphasizing coalition fragility and budget approval risks

Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 55%2%

Netanyahu publicly states holding early elections now would be a mistake, emphasizing coalition fragility and budget approval risks

Sharp market drop (-17 points) coincides with no specific news found, possibly reflecting political uncertainty or internal polling setbacks for Bennett

Naftali Bennett plunges to 20%17%

Sharp market drop (-17 points) coincides with no specific news found, possibly reflecting political uncertainty or internal polling setbacks for Bennett

Gantz signals willingness to join Netanyahu-led government to block far-right parties

Benny Gantz dips to 1%1%

Gantz stated he would join a Netanyahu government if opposition failed to form a majority, aiming to prevent extremists like Ben-Gvir from holding key posts, reflecting strategic ambiguity and weakening his independent appeal.

Opposition leader Lapid condemns coalition bill to repeal key corruption law protecting Netanyahu

Yair Lapid dips to 2%2%

Lapid vocally opposed the governing coalition's move to abolish the criminal offense of "fraud and breach of trust," a charge central to Netanyahu's corruption trial. His strong criticism highlighted the deep political divisions but did not translate into increased market confidence, reflecting skepticism about his electoral prospects.

Draft of judicial reform compromise presented by Yariv Levin and Gideon Sa’ar

Levin presented a judicial reform draft as a compromise, maintaining his influence in government policy but not advancing his position toward prime ministership. This event did not affect his market chances significantly.

Iranian hackers claim to have breached Naftali Bennett’s Telegram account, releasing contacts and doctored content;

Bennett confirms the hack but denies phone compromise, highlighting ongoing cyber threats and political tensions with Iran

Netanyahu requests presidential pardon in ongoing corruption trial, raising concerns about his political future ahead of elections

Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 54%10%

Netanyahu requests presidential pardon in ongoing corruption trial, raising concerns about his political future ahead of elections

Eizenkot’s son, killed in the Gaza war, is publicly mourned;

Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 20%6%

Eisenkot cites the loss as motivation for his political launch, generating sympathy‑driven media coverage

Netanyahu accused of sidestepping blame for October 7 failures as protests demand independent inquiry;

Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 44%9%

military dismisses generals, increasing political pressure

Israeli cabinet appoints Yariv Levin to lead multiple ministries after ultra-Orthodox parties exit coalition

Levin was appointed to head the Labor, Religious Services, and Jerusalem ministries, increasing his ministerial responsibilities but not signaling a move toward premiership. This reinforced his role as a senior minister rather than a prime ministerial candidate.

Viral social media rumors falsely claim Yariv Levin appointed interim Prime Minister replacing Netanyahu

Yariv Levin plunges to 1%48%

A widely shared Facebook post and other social media claims alleged that Yariv Levin had been named interim Prime Minister, causing initial market optimism. However, official sources and Netanyahu himself denied these claims, confirming Netanyahu remained in office and Levin was not appointed interim PM.

Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu falls to 4 % in nationwide poll, losing its lead over Likud

A poll released by the Israel Democracy Institute showed Yisrael Beiteinu at 4 % of the vote, far behind Likud’s 28 %. The loss of the party’s poll lead confirmed that Lieberman’s resignation had severely damaged his electoral prospects, keeping the

Netanyahu denounces settler violence amid rising tensions;

Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 53%14%

holds talks with Russian President Putin and meets New York Mayor Eric Adams, signaling diplomatic engagement

Benny Gantz's Blue and White party support collapses after his resignation from Netanyahu's cabinet and poor polling indicating failure to enter the Knesset

Benny Gantz plunges to 3%46%

Gantz was initially favored but lost support rapidly after leaving the war cabinet, with polls showing his party barely crossing the electoral threshold or failing to enter the Knesset.

Collapse of Bennett-Lapid coalition announced, triggering new elections and Lapid becoming interim prime minister

Yair Lapid plunges to 7%43%

The coalition government led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid collapsed after failing to pass critical legislation, prompting the dissolution of the Knesset and setting the stage for new elections. Lapid assumed the role of interim prime minister, but the political instability caused a sharp drop in market confidence in his chances to remain PM after the election.

Lieberman resigns as defense minister and quits coalition over cease‑fire with Hamas, ending his bid for prime‑ministerial leadership

Avigdor Lieberman plunges to 1%48%

In a televised statement Lieberman announced he was stepping down from the defence portfolio and leaving the governing coalition, citing the government’s cease‑fire with Hamas as “a surrender to terror.” The resignation removed him from the executive and signaled a withdrawal from the prime‑ministerial race, causing the market to crash.

Israeli military top brass call for wider systemic investigation into October 7 Hamas attack failures;

Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 39%10%

Netanyahu rejects state commission of inquiry, accusing opposition of politicizing the issue

Eizenkot pledges to place a Druze candidate in a realistic spot on Yashar!’s election list during a tour of Druze towns, broadening his appeal to minority voters

Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 14%9%

Eizenkot pledges to place a Druze candidate in a realistic spot on Yashar!’s election list during a tour of Druze towns, broadening his appeal to minority voters

Eizenkot announces the formation of a new centrist party, “Yashar!

Gadi Eizenkot dips to 1%1%

with Eizenkot,” positioning himself as a fresh prime‑ministerial contender

Former Welfare Ministry official joins Yashar!

Gadi Eizenkot rises to 5%4%

and Eisenkot unveils a post‑war trauma‑rehabilitation plan, giving the party a concrete policy platform

Gadi Eizenkot resigns from the Knesset and quits National Unity over a disputed leadership‑election process, signalling his break from the governing bloc

Gadi Eizenkot plunges to 2%47%

Gadi Eizenkot resigns from the Knesset and quits National Unity over a disputed leadership‑election process, signalling his break from the governing bloc