In the 2026 Iran war, sparked by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military sites, Tehran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia—wounding over a dozen personnel on March 30—and strikes on Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Israel. Despite a fragile ceasefire, Iranian-backed militias persisted with attacks through early April, prompting interceptions by Gulf state air defenses on April 5. As of April 30, no confirmed new direct actions occurred in the past 48 hours, though Tehran disclosed strike plans and U.S. CENTCOM readied for escalation amid threats to Strait of Hormuz assets; traders eye diplomatic signals or proxy moves for final resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Contra qué llevará a cabo Irán una acción militar antes del 30 de abril?
¿Contra qué llevará a cabo Irán una acción militar antes del 30 de abril?
$552,343 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Campo Ghawar
2%
Yacimiento Leviatán
2%
Ras Tanura
2%
Campo Khurais
2%
Refinería de Al Zour
1%
Campo/Complejo de Procesamiento Habshan
1%
Refinería de Ruwais
1%
instalación de procesamiento de petróleo de Abqaiq
1%
Ciudad Industrial de Ras Laffan
1%
Campo Safaniya
1%
Dimona (Centro de Investigación Nuclear del Néguev Shimon Peres)
<1%
Burj Khalifa
<1%
$552,343 Vol.
Campo Ghawar
$20,357 Vol.
2%
Yacimiento Leviatán
$10,961 Vol.
2%
Ras Tanura
$44,586 Vol.
2%
Campo Khurais
$18,845 Vol.
2%
Refinería de Al Zour
$31,674 Vol.
1%
Campo/Complejo de Procesamiento Habshan
$53,111 Vol.
1%
Refinería de Ruwais
$47,244 Vol.
1%
instalación de procesamiento de petróleo de Abqaiq
$45,708 Vol.
1%
Ciudad Industrial de Ras Laffan
$47,780 Vol.
1%
Campo Safaniya
$17,320 Vol.
1%
Dimona (Centro de Investigación Nuclear del Néguev Shimon Peres)
$96,560 Vol.
<1%
Burj Khalifa
$15,010 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.In the 2026 Iran war, sparked by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military sites, Tehran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia—wounding over a dozen personnel on March 30—and strikes on Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Israel. Despite a fragile ceasefire, Iranian-backed militias persisted with attacks through early April, prompting interceptions by Gulf state air defenses on April 5. As of April 30, no confirmed new direct actions occurred in the past 48 hours, though Tehran disclosed strike plans and U.S. CENTCOM readied for escalation amid threats to Strait of Hormuz assets; traders eye diplomatic signals or proxy moves for final resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$552,343Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.In the 2026 Iran war, sparked by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military sites, Tehran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia—wounding over a dozen personnel on March 30—and strikes on Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Israel. Despite a fragile ceasefire, Iranian-backed militias persisted with attacks through early April, prompting interceptions by Gulf state air defenses on April 5. As of April 30, no confirmed new direct actions occurred in the past 48 hours, though Tehran disclosed strike plans and U.S. CENTCOM readied for escalation amid threats to Strait of Hormuz assets; traders eye diplomatic signals or proxy moves for final resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volumen
$552,343Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...In the 2026 Iran war, sparked by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian military sites, Tehran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against U.S. bases in Saudi Arabia—wounding over a dozen personnel on March 30—and strikes on Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Israel. Despite a fragile ceasefire, Iranian-backed militias persisted with attacks through early April, prompting interceptions by Gulf state air defenses on April 5. As of April 30, no confirmed new direct actions occurred in the past 48 hours, though Tehran disclosed strike plans and U.S. CENTCOM readied for escalation amid threats to Strait of Hormuz assets; traders eye diplomatic signals or proxy moves for final resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes