Trader consensus favors an annual US trade deficit of $800–900 billion at 51% implied probability, reflecting Bureau of Economic Analysis data showing a sharp year-to-date narrowing through February—down 54.8% or $136 billion from 2025—driven by robust exports in natural gas, gold, and industrial supplies amid Trump administration tariffs. However, the advance March goods deficit widened 5.3% to $87.9 billion on surging imports of consumer goods and capital equipment, signaling potential rebound pressures despite shifts in bilateral gaps toward Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan. The 12-month trailing goods and services deficit stands near $776 billion, positioning traders for moderated expansion around $800–900 billion by year-end, with April data due May 5 potentially swaying sentiment further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$20,953 Vol.
$20,953 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
12%
500–600B
1%
600–700B
6%
700–800B
13%
800–900 mil millones
44%
900 mil millones–1 billón
31%
1T–1,1T
9%
1,1 billones+
5%
$20,953 Vol.
$20,953 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
$16,636 Vol.
12%
500–600B
$401 Vol.
1%
600–700B
$435 Vol.
6%
700–800B
$455 Vol.
13%
800–900 mil millones
$1,008 Vol.
44%
900 mil millones–1 billón
$954 Vol.
31%
1T–1,1T
$441 Vol.
9%
1,1 billones+
$623 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus favors an annual US trade deficit of $800–900 billion at 51% implied probability, reflecting Bureau of Economic Analysis data showing a sharp year-to-date narrowing through February—down 54.8% or $136 billion from 2025—driven by robust exports in natural gas, gold, and industrial supplies amid Trump administration tariffs. However, the advance March goods deficit widened 5.3% to $87.9 billion on surging imports of consumer goods and capital equipment, signaling potential rebound pressures despite shifts in bilateral gaps toward Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan. The 12-month trailing goods and services deficit stands near $776 billion, positioning traders for moderated expansion around $800–900 billion by year-end, with April data due May 5 potentially swaying sentiment further.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$20,953Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus favors an annual US trade deficit of $800–900 billion at 51% implied probability, reflecting Bureau of Economic Analysis data showing a sharp year-to-date narrowing through February—down 54.8% or $136 billion from 2025—driven by robust exports in natural gas, gold, and industrial supplies amid Trump administration tariffs. However, the advance March goods deficit widened 5.3% to $87.9 billion on surging imports of consumer goods and capital equipment, signaling potential rebound pressures despite shifts in bilateral gaps toward Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan. The 12-month trailing goods and services deficit stands near $776 billion, positioning traders for moderated expansion around $800–900 billion by year-end, with April data due May 5 potentially swaying sentiment further.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volumen
$20,953Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors an annual US trade deficit of $800–900 billion at 51% implied probability, reflecting Bureau of Economic Analysis data showing a sharp year-to-date narrowing through February—down 54.8% or $136 billion from 2025—driven by robust exports in natural gas, gold, and industrial supplies amid Trump administration tariffs. However, the advance March goods deficit widened 5.3% to $87.9 billion on surging imports of consumer goods and capital equipment, signaling potential rebound pressures despite shifts in bilateral gaps toward Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan. The 12-month trailing goods and services deficit stands near $776 billion, positioning traders for moderated expansion around $800–900 billion by year-end, with April data due May 5 potentially swaying sentiment further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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