Trader consensus favors an annual US trade deficit of 800–900 billion dollars at 42%, reflecting early 2026 Bureau of Economic Analysis data showing the goods and services gap narrowing sharply year-to-date through February—down 54.8% from 2025's comparable period—amid export gains and import declines, with 12-month totals through February at 776 billion. This follows 2025's near-flat 901 billion outcome despite Trump administration tariffs raising average duties to 9.6%, which shifted trade partners like reduced China imports but failed to dent the overall shortfall significantly. The March goods deficit widened 5.3% to 88 billion on surging imports, tempering optimism and boosting 900B–1T odds to 26.5%, while ongoing USTR tariff enforcement and May USMCA review talks loom as key catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$19,967 Vol.
$19,967 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
20%
500–600B
7%
600–700B
11%
700–800B
18%
800–900 mil millones
30%
900 mil millones–1 billón
27%
1T–1,1T
12%
1,1 billones+
6%
$19,967 Vol.
$19,967 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
$16,528 Vol.
20%
500–600B
$288 Vol.
7%
600–700B
$315 Vol.
11%
700–800B
$343 Vol.
18%
800–900 mil millones
$838 Vol.
30%
900 mil millones–1 billón
$818 Vol.
27%
1T–1,1T
$328 Vol.
12%
1,1 billones+
$509 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus favors an annual US trade deficit of 800–900 billion dollars at 42%, reflecting early 2026 Bureau of Economic Analysis data showing the goods and services gap narrowing sharply year-to-date through February—down 54.8% from 2025's comparable period—amid export gains and import declines, with 12-month totals through February at 776 billion. This follows 2025's near-flat 901 billion outcome despite Trump administration tariffs raising average duties to 9.6%, which shifted trade partners like reduced China imports but failed to dent the overall shortfall significantly. The March goods deficit widened 5.3% to 88 billion on surging imports, tempering optimism and boosting 900B–1T odds to 26.5%, while ongoing USTR tariff enforcement and May USMCA review talks loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$19,967Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus favors an annual US trade deficit of 800–900 billion dollars at 42%, reflecting early 2026 Bureau of Economic Analysis data showing the goods and services gap narrowing sharply year-to-date through February—down 54.8% from 2025's comparable period—amid export gains and import declines, with 12-month totals through February at 776 billion. This follows 2025's near-flat 901 billion outcome despite Trump administration tariffs raising average duties to 9.6%, which shifted trade partners like reduced China imports but failed to dent the overall shortfall significantly. The March goods deficit widened 5.3% to 88 billion on surging imports, tempering optimism and boosting 900B–1T odds to 26.5%, while ongoing USTR tariff enforcement and May USMCA review talks loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volumen
$19,967Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors an annual US trade deficit of 800–900 billion dollars at 42%, reflecting early 2026 Bureau of Economic Analysis data showing the goods and services gap narrowing sharply year-to-date through February—down 54.8% from 2025's comparable period—amid export gains and import declines, with 12-month totals through February at 776 billion. This follows 2025's near-flat 901 billion outcome despite Trump administration tariffs raising average duties to 9.6%, which shifted trade partners like reduced China imports but failed to dent the overall shortfall significantly. The March goods deficit widened 5.3% to 88 billion on surging imports, tempering optimism and boosting 900B–1T odds to 26.5%, while ongoing USTR tariff enforcement and May USMCA review talks loom as key catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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