Recent U.S. economic data continue to support trader consensus against a recession by year-end, with the Sahm Rule indicator at just 0.10 in May 2026—well below the 0.50 recession threshold—and unemployment holding steady near 4.3%. Real GDP expanded at a 2% pace in the first quarter, while forecasters project full-year growth of 2.2–2.5% amid resilient consumer spending and AI-driven capital expenditures. Although headline CPI rose to 4.2% in May due to energy prices near $100 per barrel following Middle East developments, the labor market remains in a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium with stable jobless claims. The Federal Reserve has held the funds rate at 3.5–3.75%, with market pricing reflecting limited near-term easing. Yield-curve and statistical models currently assign recession odds of 15% or less over the next twelve months, reflecting these supportive fundamentals. Key upcoming catalysts include June inflation and employment releases plus the next FOMC meeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Recesión en Estados Unidos a finales de 2026?
¿Recesión en Estados Unidos a finales de 2026?
Sí
$1,567,367 Vol.
$1,567,367 Vol.
31 ene 2027
Sí
$1,567,367 Vol.
$1,567,367 Vol.
31 ene 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productRecent U.S. economic data continue to support trader consensus against a recession by year-end, with the Sahm Rule indicator at just 0.10 in May 2026—well below the 0.50 recession threshold—and unemployment holding steady near 4.3%. Real GDP expanded at a 2% pace in the first quarter, while forecasters project full-year growth of 2.2–2.5% amid resilient consumer spending and AI-driven capital expenditures. Although headline CPI rose to 4.2% in May due to energy prices near $100 per barrel following Middle East developments, the labor market remains in a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium with stable jobless claims. The Federal Reserve has held the funds rate at 3.5–3.75%, with market pricing reflecting limited near-term easing. Yield-curve and statistical models currently assign recession odds of 15% or less over the next twelve months, reflecting these supportive fundamentals. Key upcoming catalysts include June inflation and employment releases plus the next FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Mercado abierto: Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
Volumen
$1,567,367Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productRecent U.S. economic data continue to support trader consensus against a recession by year-end, with the Sahm Rule indicator at just 0.10 in May 2026—well below the 0.50 recession threshold—and unemployment holding steady near 4.3%. Real GDP expanded at a 2% pace in the first quarter, while forecasters project full-year growth of 2.2–2.5% amid resilient consumer spending and AI-driven capital expenditures. Although headline CPI rose to 4.2% in May due to energy prices near $100 per barrel following Middle East developments, the labor market remains in a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium with stable jobless claims. The Federal Reserve has held the funds rate at 3.5–3.75%, with market pricing reflecting limited near-term easing. Yield-curve and statistical models currently assign recession odds of 15% or less over the next twelve months, reflecting these supportive fundamentals. Key upcoming catalysts include June inflation and employment releases plus the next FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Volumen
$1,567,367Fecha de finalización
31 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data continue to support trader consensus against a recession by year-end, with the Sahm Rule indicator at just 0.10 in May 2026—well below the 0.50 recession threshold—and unemployment holding steady near 4.3%. Real GDP expanded at a 2% pace in the first quarter, while forecasters project full-year growth of 2.2–2.5% amid resilient consumer spending and AI-driven capital expenditures. Although headline CPI rose to 4.2% in May due to energy prices near $100 per barrel following Middle East developments, the labor market remains in a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium with stable jobless claims. The Federal Reserve has held the funds rate at 3.5–3.75%, with market pricing reflecting limited near-term easing. Yield-curve and statistical models currently assign recession odds of 15% or less over the next twelve months, reflecting these supportive fundamentals. Key upcoming catalysts include June inflation and employment releases plus the next FOMC meeting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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