Persistent geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz starting in late February 2026, continue to anchor trader sentiment around the 25-49 weekly transits bin at 76% implied probability. Pre-crisis baselines exceeded 60 vessels daily, but ongoing security risks, Iranian coordination mandates, elevated insurance costs, and a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports have limited daily passages to the low teens or fewer, per Kpler and IMF PortWatch data through early June. Modest late-May gains from roughly three U.S.-guided transits per day have not produced sustained normalization, with Brent crude near $97 reflecting persistent supply concerns. The week of June 1 falls squarely within this constrained regime, with early reports showing no material rebound ahead of potential diplomatic catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 1?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 1?
25-49 76%
<25 11%
50-74 7%
75-99 1.6%
$20,862 Vol.
$20,862 Vol.
7 jun 2026
<25
11%
25-49
76%
50-74
7%
75-99
2%
100+
1%
25-49 76%
<25 11%
50-74 7%
75-99 1.6%
$20,862 Vol.
$20,862 Vol.
7 jun 2026
<25
$6,863 Vol.
11%
25-49
$4,090 Vol.
76%
50-74
$4,479 Vol.
7%
75-99
$2,440 Vol.
2%
100+
$2,989 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 1, 2026, through June 7, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz starting in late February 2026, continue to anchor trader sentiment around the 25-49 weekly transits bin at 76% implied probability. Pre-crisis baselines exceeded 60 vessels daily, but ongoing security risks, Iranian coordination mandates, elevated insurance costs, and a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports have limited daily passages to the low teens or fewer, per Kpler and IMF PortWatch data through early June. Modest late-May gains from roughly three U.S.-guided transits per day have not produced sustained normalization, with Brent crude near $97 reflecting persistent supply concerns. The week of June 1 falls squarely within this constrained regime, with early reports showing no material rebound ahead of potential diplomatic catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 1, 2026, through June 7, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Jun 1, 2026, 12:23 PM ET
Volumen
$20,862Fecha de finalización
7 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 1, 2026, 12:23 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 1, 2026, through June 7, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz starting in late February 2026, continue to anchor trader sentiment around the 25-49 weekly transits bin at 76% implied probability. Pre-crisis baselines exceeded 60 vessels daily, but ongoing security risks, Iranian coordination mandates, elevated insurance costs, and a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports have limited daily passages to the low teens or fewer, per Kpler and IMF PortWatch data through early June. Modest late-May gains from roughly three U.S.-guided transits per day have not produced sustained normalization, with Brent crude near $97 reflecting persistent supply concerns. The week of June 1 falls squarely within this constrained regime, with early reports showing no material rebound ahead of potential diplomatic catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 1, 2026, through June 7, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$20,862Fecha de finalización
7 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 1, 2026, 12:23 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz starting in late February 2026, continue to anchor trader sentiment around the 25-49 weekly transits bin at 76% implied probability. Pre-crisis baselines exceeded 60 vessels daily, but ongoing security risks, Iranian coordination mandates, elevated insurance costs, and a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports have limited daily passages to the low teens or fewer, per Kpler and IMF PortWatch data through early June. Modest late-May gains from roughly three U.S.-guided transits per day have not produced sustained normalization, with Brent crude near $97 reflecting persistent supply concerns. The week of June 1 falls squarely within this constrained regime, with early reports showing no material rebound ahead of potential diplomatic catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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