The Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate released April 30, 2026, shows U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1 2026, up sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace and aligning closely with Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts around 2.3%, driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability on the 2.0–2.5% outcome as trader consensus locks in the official figure. Key contributors included gains in private investment, exports, consumer spending, and government outlays, offsetting a rise in imports. While the market resolves strictly on this advance print, subsequent second (late May) and third estimates could revise the number modestly—typically by 0.1–0.5 percentage points—though such changes won't impact resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Crecimiento del PIB de EE. UU. en el primer trimestre de 2026
¿Crecimiento del PIB de EE. UU. en el primer trimestre de 2026
2,0–2,5% 100.0%
<1,0% <1%
1.0–1.5% <1%
1,5–2,0% <1%
$480,604 Vol.
$480,604 Vol.
30 abr 2026
<1,0%
<1%
1.0–1.5%
<1%
1,5–2,0%
<1%
2,0–2,5%
100%
2.5–3.0%
<1%
3,0–3,5%
<1%
≥3,5%
<1%
2,0–2,5% 100.0%
<1,0% <1%
1.0–1.5% <1%
1,5–2,0% <1%
$480,604 Vol.
$480,604 Vol.
30 abr 2026
<1,0%
$56,457 Vol.
<1%
1.0–1.5%
$23,963 Vol.
<1%
1,5–2,0%
$48,747 Vol.
<1%
2,0–2,5%
$73,507 Vol.
100%
2.5–3.0%
$44,307 Vol.
<1%
3,0–3,5%
$132,966 Vol.
<1%
≥3,5%
$103,635 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.The Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate released April 30, 2026, shows U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1 2026, up sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace and aligning closely with Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts around 2.3%, driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability on the 2.0–2.5% outcome as trader consensus locks in the official figure. Key contributors included gains in private investment, exports, consumer spending, and government outlays, offsetting a rise in imports. While the market resolves strictly on this advance print, subsequent second (late May) and third estimates could revise the number modestly—typically by 0.1–0.5 percentage points—though such changes won't impact resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Mercado abierto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ET
Volumen
$480,604Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Ventana de disputas
Final
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.The Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate released April 30, 2026, shows U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1 2026, up sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace and aligning closely with Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts around 2.3%, driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability on the 2.0–2.5% outcome as trader consensus locks in the official figure. Key contributors included gains in private investment, exports, consumer spending, and government outlays, offsetting a rise in imports. While the market resolves strictly on this advance print, subsequent second (late May) and third estimates could revise the number modestly—typically by 0.1–0.5 percentage points—though such changes won't impact resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volumen
$480,604Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: Sí
Ventana de disputas
Final
The Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate released April 30, 2026, shows U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1 2026, up sharply from Q4 2025's 0.5% pace and aligning closely with Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts around 2.3%, driving Polymarket's 100% implied probability on the 2.0–2.5% outcome as trader consensus locks in the official figure. Key contributors included gains in private investment, exports, consumer spending, and government outlays, offsetting a rise in imports. While the market resolves strictly on this advance print, subsequent second (late May) and third estimates could revise the number modestly—typically by 0.1–0.5 percentage points—though such changes won't impact resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes