Polls show tight race between Cornyn and Paxton ahead of May runoff

John Cornyn rises to 42%3%

Recent polling indicated a close contest, with Cornyn slightly recovering as the runoff neared, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in voter preferences.

Paxton speaks at Conservative Political Action Conference, maintaining strong conservative support despite runoff challenges

Ken Paxton surges to 54%16%

His CPAC appearance reaffirmed his base support and helped recover some lost ground.

Runoff campaign intensifies with negative ads and attacks between Cornyn and Paxton

John Cornyn drops to 52%12%

The heated runoff campaign and Paxton’s attacks on Cornyn’s establishment image caused a decline in Cornyn’s.

Trump signals support for both Cornyn and Paxton, refusing to endorse a single candidate

John Cornyn surges to 91%27%

Trump’s ambiguous stance energized Cornyn’s base and fundraising, causing a peak in market.

No new fundraising or poll data emerges;

Wesley Hunt plunges to 0%17%

analysts note Hunt’s campaign has stalled, driving the

Texas Republican primary held; Cornyn and Paxton advance to runoff

John Cornyn surges to 64%51%

Cornyn’s advancement to the runoff with Paxton after the March 3 primary was a major positive catalyst, sharply increasing his market.

Texas Republican primary results: Paxton and Cornyn advance to runoff, Paxton leads initial vote but falls short of majority

Ken Paxton plunges to 38%45%

The primary outcome caused a sharp

Polls show Cornyn trailing significantly behind Paxton and Hunt

John Cornyn plunges to 13%22%

Public and private polling indicated Cornyn was losing ground, reflecting concerns about his electability and the strength of his opponents.

Paxton surges to peak polling (83-85%) after aggressive campaigning and endorsements, including CPAC's official backing

Ken Paxton surges to 83%34%

The CPAC endorsement and campaign efforts boosted Paxton's perceived electability among conservative voters.

Hunt launches a second statewide TV ad emphasizing his Trump endorsement, briefly lifting his

Wesley Hunt jumps to 17%13%

Hunt launches a second statewide TV ad emphasizing his Trump endorsement, briefly lifting his

Internal poll released by the Senate Leadership Fund shows Cornyn closing the gap on Paxton, marginalizing Hunt’s role and sending his

Wesley Hunt drops to 4%12%

Internal poll released by the Senate Leadership Fund shows Cornyn closing the gap on Paxton, marginalizing Hunt’s role and sending his

Ken Paxton leads his first major campaign rally at Turning Point USA summit, reinforcing his conservative credentials and energizing supporters

Ken Paxton surges to 60%17%

This rally helped Paxton regain momentum by solidifying his base and increasing visibility.

Hunt files official paperwork with the Texas Secretary of State, formally entering the race and prompting a short

Wesley Hunt rises to 16%1%

Hunt files official paperwork with the Texas Secretary of State, formally entering the race and prompting a short

Filing deadline passes with Cornyn, Paxton, and Hunt as main contenders

John Cornyn drops to 27%13%

The official candidate list solidified a competitive three-way race, with Cornyn’s.

Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak publicly calls Hunt “a legend in his own mind,” intensifying intra‑party criticism and causing a

Wesley Hunt drops to 15%10%

Cornyn campaign senior adviser Matt Mackowiak publicly calls Hunt “a legend in his own mind,” intensifying intra‑party criticism and causing a

Hunt’s campaign rolls out its first statewide TV ad portraying him as the “staunchest Trump ally,” generating a brief rally in the market

Wesley Hunt jumps to 25%14%

Hunt’s campaign rolls out its first statewide TV ad portraying him as the “staunchest Trump ally,” generating a brief rally in the market

Houston‑area poll released in August shows Hunt at 17% in a hypothetical three‑way matchup, giving a modest boost to his perceived viability and lifting the

Wesley Hunt rises to 11%2%

Houston‑area poll released in August shows Hunt at 17% in a hypothetical three‑way matchup, giving a modest boost to his perceived viability and lifting the

National Republican Senate Leadership Fund memo publicly labels Hunt a “weak candidate” and urges support for incumbent John Cornyn, signaling elite GOP opposition and pushing his

Wesley Hunt rises to 9%4%

National Republican Senate Leadership Fund memo publicly labels Hunt a “weak candidate” and urges support for incumbent John Cornyn, signaling elite GOP opposition and pushing his

Wesley Hunt officially announces his Senate bid, turning a two‑person primary into a three‑way race and prompting a surge in his market

Wesley Hunt plunges to 5%45%

Wesley Hunt officially announces his Senate bid, turning a two‑person primary into a three‑way race and prompting a surge in his market

Congressman Wesley Hunt enters the Texas Senate race, complicating the Republican primary and increasing chances of a runoff

Ken Paxton drops to 39%5%

Hunt's entry split the conservative vote, pressuring Paxton's polling numbers downward amid a more crowded field.

Wesley Hunt enters the GOP primary, complicating the race and increasing runoff chances

John Cornyn rises to 46%4%

Hunt’s entry split the anti-Cornyn vote, giving Cornyn a slight boost as the primary field became more crowded and unpredictable.

Ken Paxton attacks Cornyn’s age and establishment ties at San Antonio event

John Cornyn jumps to 47%13%

Paxton’s criticism of Cornyn as out of touch and too old resonated with the GOP base, causing a.

Cornyn’s campaign ads and outreach boost his standing in the Republican primary

John Cornyn jumps to 32%11%

Cornyn’s allies launched a media blitz highlighting his record and support for Trump’s policies, helping him recover some support after a low point in August.

Senator John Cornyn begins critical summer campaign push amid tough primary challenge from Ken Paxton

John Cornyn plunges to 34%16%

Cornyn’s campaign intensified during the Senate’s summer recess to regain ground against Paxton, who was leading in polls. The lack of Trump’s endorsement and Paxton’s strong MAGA appeal pressured Cornyn’s market.

Angela Paxton files for divorce citing adultery, raising questions about Ken Paxton's personal stability during the campaign

Ken Paxton drops to 48%13%

The divorce filing introduced personal scandal concerns that likely dampened Paxton's support temporarily.

Ken Paxton officially announces U.S. Senate candidacy challenging incumbent John Cornyn on Fox News, marking the start of a high-profile primary battle

Ken Paxton jumps to 61%11%

Paxton's formal entry energized his base and shifted early polling in his favor as he positioned himself as a conservative alternative to Cornyn.